Everyone is questioned, many are mustered and only a few are actually drafted: the Swedish conscription model skims off the best of a year. Defense Minister Pistorius seems to be suitable for Germany.
“The Swedish model” is what Boris Pistorius has made known in Germany since he hinted at the end of last year that he was also interested in Sweden’s form of conscription for German troops. On Tuesday, the Defense Minister left for Scandinavia as planned, also to take a closer look at Swedish conscription. “I’ve never made a secret of the fact that I have a certain soft spot for the Swedish model, because in the end it’s also about resources, about questions like: How could something like this grow? What is part of it?” said Pistorius before his Departure.
Background to the minister’s considerations: Many security experts see the current structure for recruiting professional soldiers for the Bundeswehr as not suitable for the significant growth that the Defense Ministry is planning for the next few years. From the current 183,000 soldiers, the aim is to reach 203,000 by 2031, but with an average loss of 20,000 women and men per year. This means that in order for the force to grow by 20,000 soldiers, 40,000 new soldiers must actually be added.
In the eyes of many experts, this cannot be achieved on a purely voluntary basis, even though a task force has already begun to remove many outdated, bureaucratic obstacles from the application process and the service itself.
The old conscription is not an option
So a fundamental change is needed. Compulsory military service, as it was in force in Germany until it was suspended in 2011, is not a solution. Because if there are now too few soldiers available, with the old conscription you would suddenly have far too many. With births around 700,000, even after excluding those with health problems or without a German passport, there would still be several hundred thousand left.
“If perhaps 250,000 of the remaining 500,000 actually went into the Bundeswehr, then that would be a contingent that we would not be able to process structurally at all,” said security expert Carlo Masala in an interview with ntv.de in December. From his point of view, neither the training companies nor barracks or material are available. “Rebuilding these structures would cost so much money that I don’t see the necessary social consensus,” says Masala, who researches at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich.
Sweden only signs a few of each year
The challenge for Pistorius is to develop a model that ensures significant growth without the troops’ structures bursting at the seams. The Swedish model offers the following middle ground: every year it has all 18-year-olds – in Sweden that’s around 100,000 young people every year – fill out an extensive questionnaire. There questions are asked about health, school education, questions about personality and also about motivation to possibly do military service.
Based on the completed questionnaires, around a third of the class is selected for a two-day muster. The Swedish goal from 2025 is to recruit 8,000 conscripts per year. This goal seems to be achievable with the model, but not on a purely voluntary basis. Those who appear best suited for military service may also be required to serve in arms.
With this model, which actually requires relatively few people of a year to do military service, the number of soldiers in basic training increases, says Jonas Hard af Segerstad, defense attaché at the Swedish embassy in Berlin. In the security blog “Eyes straight ahead” He praises the advantage that the performance profiles of those selected using the compulsory system are better than those of volunteers.
The best join the team, but rarely stay
Those selected also represented a “select” of the cohort, many of whom were also suitable for an officer career due to their abilities. From the Swede’s point of view, the model works well for this goal of recruiting forces for higher ranks, “as it selects the right people and gives them an insight into the armed forces that they would otherwise never have gotten,” says Hard af Segerstad. This also ensures that the soldiers increasingly come from all levels of society – a positive factor for the broad anchoring of the force.
However, the sea captain also sees disadvantages in the Swedish model: “The proportion of those with basic training who continue their commitment after basic training decreases with the compulsory system.” Sounds logical: The Swedish model skims off the cream of each year and brings them into the army. But after completing their compulsory military service, many of these young people have other plans. Volunteers, on the other hand, may be less suitable for military service, but remain loyal to it for longer because of their own conviction. “In order to attract young men and women who will continue to serve as enlisted soldiers after basic training,” Hard af Segerstad sees his country’s model as less suitable.
Boris Pistorius now has the difficult task of transferring the structures of the model to the German cohort, but also to the German attitude towards the Bundeswehr. In Sweden, which was not a NATO ally until a few months ago, there is a greater awareness that a country must be able to defend itself in an emergency, even alone if necessary. In addition to compulsory military service, all almost eleven million Swedes have a homeland security obligation, within which the general population can be called up for exercises, and a general service obligation. Defense is understood as an interaction between military and civilian actors.
The supposed disadvantage that many of the “selected” conscripts then take a different path after basic training and military service does not have to be a disadvantage for Germany if it manages to recruit a sufficiently large number of soldiers. In addition to the targeted 203,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, Germany also needs a strong reserve for the future years. One of the simplest lessons that could be learned early on from the Ukrainian war: This would be crucial for the second and third waves of the war.
Germany has hardly anything to offer here, so physically fit young people with military service experience who then become IT developers, veterinarians or designers would only at first glance be a loss. They could and should form a powerful German reserve in terms of both numbers and capabilities. It remains to be decided whether it will ultimately be the “Sweden model”, a different one or a mixture of five different strategies. Also the question: “Are we just talking about compulsory military service or are we also talking about compulsory military service and military service?”, as Pistorius said before his departure. “All of these are discussions that we are only now beginning to have, but that we have to have. I am convinced of that.”