What stage are membership applications at?

The European Commission gave a favorable opinion on Wednesday November 8 to the opening of formal negotiations so that Ukraine and Moldova can join the European Union (EU). She also suggested granting Georgia candidate status to the EU. These recommendations must still be approved at a summit of leaders of the twenty-seven member states in Brussels on December 14 and 15.

“Enlargement is a vital policy for the European Union. The completion of our Union is the natural horizon of our Union. Completing our Union also responds, at this very moment, to a strong economic and geopolitical logic”, declared the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Ten years after Croatia’s accession, in 2013, around ten countries are now knocking on the door of the Twenty-Seven. But beyond the intentions, the processes are long and complex.

Which are the candidate countries?

Eight countries are officially candidates: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine. There are also two potential candidates, Georgia and Kosovo, whose candidacy has been submitted but not yet officially approved by the EU.

Iceland, Norway and Switzerland once wanted to join the bloc, but have since withdrawn their candidacy.

What are the steps to join the EU?

Before even being able to submit its candidacy, a State must meet two essential conditions.

1. Be part of geographical Europe. Morocco’s candidacy to join the European Economic Community (ancestor of the EU) was thus rejected in 1987 on this basis.
2. Respect and commit to promoting the common values ​​of the EUnotably the rule of law, democracy, human rights and even equality between men and women.

The state must submit a formal application to the Council of the EU, the institution that brings together member states. Beforehand, the European Commission examines its ability to respect the accession criteria, known as “ Copenhagen criteria “, including a stable democracy, the rule of law and a functioning market economy. Then, member states must unanimously agree to grant the country candidate status.

In the event of a green light, negotiations prior to accession can begin. All EU legislation – the “acquis communitaire” – is divided into thirty-five chapters. Accession negotiations can only take place once all chapters are closed. The accession of a new member must then be unanimously approved by the Council of the EU and the European Parliament.

Where are the applications from the Balkan countries?

Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia and Albania are at the negotiating stage, but with little progress. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo have not yet started them.

“There is a race between countries in the region to be the first after the Croats to join the EU”observes Yves Bertoncini, consultant and professor in European affairs. “The Balkan countries have been in the antechamber of the European Union for more than twenty yearsrecalls Florent Marciacq, Balkans specialist at the French Institute of International Relations. There is a form of weariness: the Europeans have been promising for years and years to relaunch the accession process, but in reality, it is difficult to see things moving in the region. »

• Montenegro: theoretically the most advanced candidate with 33 chapters open out of 35, Montenegro has “suffered from deep polarization and political instability” , according to the 2023 report of the European Parliament. The European legislator is also concerned about attempts at foreign interference in the country but welcomes Montenegro’s alignment with sanctions against Russia.
• Serbia: the way to Serbia towards integration is undermined by its conflictual relationships with its neighbors. Belgrade’s accusations of interference in Kosovo but also in Bosnia-Herzegovina and its close relations with Moscow threaten the Serbian accession process. At the last Davos forum, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that his country “wasn’t as enthusiastic as before” to the idea of ​​joining the Twenty-Seven. In a survey carried out in 2022a majority of Serbs positioned themselves for the first time against membership.
• North Macedonia : if the country has been officially a candidate since 2005, accession negotiations did not begin until 2022, due to opposition from two member states. Greece lifted its veto in 2018 when Skopje agreed to renounce its name “Macedonia”, which also corresponds to a Hellenic region. Bulgaria gave the green light in 2022, when its neighbor agreed to change its Constitution to recognize the country’s Bulgarian minority.
• Albania: the country also had to wait until 2022 for the opening of accession negotiations, the EU having linked its candidacy to that of North Macedonia. The Commission has welcomed its progress in aligning its foreign policy with that of the EU, but believes that “further efforts are needed on freedom of expression, minority issues and property rights, as well as in key areas of the rule of law, such as the fight against corruption and organized crime”.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina : after having submitted its application for membership in 2016, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been officially a candidate since December 2022, which brought “an essential positive dynamic” for reforms – particularly judicial –, according to the Commission. But constitutional and electoral reforms are still necessary in order to open accession negotiations, according to the European executive.
• Kosovo : the youngest European state, Kosovo, independent only since 2008, submitted its candidacy in December 2022. The European perspective benefits from very broad popular support. A sign of rapprochement, Kosovars will be exempt from visas to travel in the Schengen area from 1^er January 2024. Membership is not certain, however, and depends largely on the normalization of Kosovo’s relations with Serbia.

The enlargement of the European Union is eminently political: “Membership is a process of co-optation by member states. On this, there are a very large number of uncertainties with possible blockages which make the accession horizon extremely vaguebelieves Florent Marciacq. It is often neighboring countries that block, due to bilateral disputes. »

“The problem of the free movement of people and economic competition » can also frighten opponents of enlargement, adds Yves Bertoncini. The specialist in European affairs, however, recalls the major argument in favor of enlargement to the south-east: “Prevent the Balkans from becoming a gray zone where Russia, China, Saudi Arabia or Turkey would interfere, in the middle of the EU. It is a consolidation, more than an enlargement, because the Balkans are a hole within the EU.”

What about the other contenders for membership?

• Türkiye : the relationship between Turkey and the EU is old and tumultuous. Submitted in 1987, Ankara’s candidacy was only made official in 1999 by the European Union, which still waited until 2005 to begin accession negotiations. The initial reluctance of certain States, like the demographic weight which would upset the balance of the bloc, is reinforced with the authoritarian drift of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. So much so that for the EU, the negotiations have been since 2018 “ to the point of death ». After a recent Turkish attempt to restart talks, Austria announced in mid-September that she wanted a definitive end to Ankara’s accession process.
• Ukraine: the country submitted its application on February 28, 2022, four days after Russia began its invasion. Thanks to an express procedure, she obtained candidate status from June 23, 2022 – “record time”, notes Yves Bertoncini. Despite the conflict with Russia, which complicates the maintaining stable institutions and a viable economyand widespread corruption – Ukraine is ranked 116^e countries out of 180 in the global corruption barometer –, the Commission considers that “the Ukrainian government and parliament have demonstrated their determination to make substantial progress”, in particular on the institutional framework and the fight against the influence of oligarchs. The official opening of negotiations, recommended by the Commission, must still be confirmed by the member states.
• Moldova: Moldova’s candidacy is linked to that of Ukraine and the fear of the Russian threat. Moldova is also facing pro-Russian armed secession in the Transnistria region. Submitted in March 2022, its candidacy was made official at the same time as that of Ukraine, in June of the same year. The Commission therefore recommends opening the stage of accession negotiations for the two countries, after the adoption of a few key measures.
• Georgia: Georgia’s application, submitted in March 2022, has just obtained a favorable opinion from the Commission, pending the green light from the Member States. Tbilisi’s rapprochement with the European bloc is, however, complicated by the ambiguous relations between the ruling party and the current prime minister with Russia, even though the president, Salomé Zourabichvili, is a fervent supporter of membership.

If the horizon for the EU accession procedures of the three former Soviet republics still seemed very distant a year and a half ago, “ the Russian invasion caused profound upheaval »notes Yves Bertoncini. “Since the war in Ukraine, the European Union has been thinking a little less technocratically. We realized that there are geostrategic interests to be weighed », notes Florent Marciacq.