One hundred and fifty days after the launch of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country, the military and Western analysts made the same bitter observation: the Kiev army has made very little progress and, above all, is no longer advancing. . “Despite the determined efforts of the Ukrainian armed forces, five months of offensive operations have failed to break through the Russian defense lines”observes Jack Watling, researcher at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in a note published on October 19. “Ukraine retains some options to make the Russian device uncomfortable, but it is very unlikely that there will be a breakthrough (…) This year “adds this specialist in land combat, who expects the conflict to continue in 2024, or even beyond.
When launching its first assaults on the Russian lines on June 4, the Ukrainian army nevertheless had high hopes for its operation. Throughout the spring, it had accumulated men and equipment to break through the defenses erected by the enemy along the approximately 1,000 kilometers of the front line. Twelve brigades, bringing together around 35,000 soldiers, had been specially formed for the maneuver, some of which were equipped with modern Western armor: British Challenger 2 and German Leopard 2 tanks, American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, French reconnaissance vehicles. AMX-10 RC…
Kiev’s objective, then, was to break through the Russian defensive system built between the cities of Zaporizhia and Donetsk, in the south of the country, in an attempt to reach the Sea of Azov, at the level of the towns of Melitopol, Berdiansk or Mariupol. Such a maneuver would have allowed the Ukrainians to cut the Russian army in two, notably isolating its forces deployed furthest to the west, on the left bank of the Dnieper River. Above all, it would have made it possible to break the land bridge which connects Russia to the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow uses to supply men and equipment to all of its forces present in the south of the country.
Alas, despite countless attempts to pierce the Russian defensive curtain, the Ukrainian army is stalling. At the height of its push on the southern front this summer, it would have progressed only 90 meters per day on average, assures the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in a summary published on October 12. “The twelve brigades mobilized by the Ukrainians for their counter-offensive have been partly consumed, and their soldiers are still blocked on the first Russian line of defense”confirms a French military source, not very optimistic about the Ukrainian capacity to cross the enemy trenches.
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