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The surprise imprisonment of Timur Ivanov sparked speculation about a power struggle. What exactly is there?
That happened: The Russian domestic secret service FSB arrested Timur Ivanov, one of twelve deputy defense ministers, on Tuesday. The Moscow District Court accuses him of accepting particularly large amounts of bribes. No details were given. In the country’s biggest corruption case since the beginning of the war, an entrepreneur who was his friend was also arrested. Ivanov, who will remain in custody until June 23, denies the allegations. It is the presumption of innocence.
Plausible justification: The arrest, officially based on corruption, is “absolutely plausible,” says ARD Russia correspondent Frank Aischmann. The anti-corruption foundation of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, who died in custody, has already made allegations of corruption against Ivanov. According to various media reports, Ivanov could be punished with a heavy fine or up to 15 years in prison.
Rumor 1: Just the beginning: Ivanov’s imprisonment sparked speculation about a power struggle within the Russian leadership. Among other things, it is speculated that the arrest of Ivanov, a close confidante of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, could be just the beginning of a castling attack in the ministry. Because in two weeks, when Putin is sworn in for another term, the government will have to resign and Putin will have to fill the individual positions. In view of the war in Ukraine, which from Russia’s perspective was unsuccessful, it could be, according to Aischmann, “that a signal was sent to Shoigu, namely: ‘That’s it for you’.” But the argument could also be turned around: a deputy of Shoigu would be punished “in order to present his own backyard as swept clean,” said Aischmann.
Rumor 2: Timur Ivanov exaggerated it: People fight and die in the Ukrainian War, while Ivanov enjoys a carefree life with his family. “Perhaps this is a warning shot to everyone in similar positions,” says Aischmann.
Rumor 3: High Treason: There are also rumors that the corruption allegations could be treason. “It’s just a rumor,” says the ARD correspondent.
Rumor 4: Too greedy for Prigozhin’s inheritance: Outside Russia, the inheritance of the slain head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is currently being distributed, for example shares in mines and other properties. “Perhaps Ivanov stretched his hands out too tightly,” says Aischmann.
Rumor 5: At the mercy of a power struggle: But it could also be that the traditional fight between the FSB and the military has escalated, Aischamann speculates. The secret service is having difficulty arguing why it was unable to prevent the terrorist attack near Moscow. “Perhaps the Ministry of Defense was too strengthened in terms of balance,” said Aischmann.