The comments made by the president of the CRE, Emmanuelle Wargon, made the political class react this Thursday and made consumers fear a new increase in the regulated price of electricity in February 2024. If the latter is not excluded, the Final decision rests with the government. Explanations.
It is not guaranteed that the president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) had planned to spend her Thursday, September 14 on the social network X, formerly Twitter. However, following her remarks made this Thursday during a press conference, Emmanuelle Wargon had to work to clarify her thoughts. Yes, the CRE envisages that the recommended increase in ttariff regulation (TRV) of electricity is around 10%. No, This is not an official announcement, nor even a prediction.
In reality, Emmanuelle Wargon mentioned the next tariff chance expected for February 1, 2024, since the TRV changes twice a year, that month and in August: The theoretical calculation that the CRE will propose to the government could lead to a development whose The order of magnitude would be 10% maximum at the start of 2024, in current market conditions, before possible application of a tariff shield.
Problem, the 21 million TRV customers have already suffered an increase of 15% in February 2023 and another of 10% at the beginning of August against the backdrop of the gradual exit from the tariff shield desired by the government. So what should you expect in the heart of winter?
Why the rise is likely
Particularly because of its estimated cost of 30 billion in 2023 for public finances, the tariff shield for electricity must end in December 2024. In addition, it is important to remember that this year, when the government announced a 15% increase in the blue rate in February, the CRE, according to its calculation method, recommended an increase of 99%, excluding the tariff shield. But the CRE also specified that the scales calculated by the CRE will not be […] not applied to consumers and these are the frozen price scales, set by the Government, which will come into force on February 1, 2023.
But this is not the only reason that makes an increase credible next February. The method of calculating the TRV takes into account market conditions and Arenh’s requests at the end of the year, this system which authorizes the purchase at a reduced price (42 euros per megawatt hour compared to nearly 100 euros on the markets) by alternative suppliers of nuclear electricity produced by EDF.
On the first criterion, it we must be careful and wait for the situation on the wholesale markets at the end of 2023, estimates Julien Tedd of the broker Opra nergie, interviewed by MoneyVox. On the second, the general delegate of the CLCV consumer association, François Carlier asks an Arenh counter caps 140 tWh, to avoid EDF being forced to supply itself on the markets. In fact, TRV consumers would then be better protected from price increases.
Samuel AUFFRAY
After studying political science in Paris 2 and journalism at the CFJ, Samuel Auffray worked for L’Obs in the field of… Read more
MoneyVox / SA / September 2023