Will the 2024 Bitcoin halving fail?

Every 210,000 blocks, about every four years, the guillotine falls in the Bitcoin blockchain: The distribution of new Bitcoin per block is throttled, the supply is reduced – by half, hence halving. Halving is to Bitcoin Maxis what the football World Cup is to lawn sports fans. A week-long party with everyone staring intently at the screen waiting for the big bang on the chart. The actual “game”, the change from the current 6.25 to the future 3.125 Bitcoin, is on the brink: because miners are trying to revolt against the algorithm.

With one’s back to the wall

Uwe is angry. He is one of the pioneers, he has been mining bitcoin since 2009, back then from his old PC in the children’s room. Bitcoin fascinated him from the start: “It just clicked, I wanted to be part of it”. Uwe belongs to the first generation of miners, for whom mining the cryptocurrency was more of a matter of conviction. Big money was out of the question then. It was only when trading in Bitcoin became more widespread that he realized: “I can make a lot of money here”.

He gets more PCs, the first graphics cards, converts his old children’s room into a mining system. What started out as a hobby becomes a profession. Mining is becoming more professional, the equipment more powerful, in 2011 special high-performance chips, so-called ASICS, become the standard. At some point he got over his head, he became self-employed and founded his first mining farm in an old bunker. Today he is big in business. But the good years are over.

“What would you say if you suddenly only got half of your wages?” Uwe is frustrated, complains about “exorbitantly expensive electricity bills” and feels let down. The halving has long been a thorn in his side. “On the one hand, I can understand the euphoria, but who cares about us?” He can’t last much longer. If electricity prices don’t fall and the Bitcoin price doesn’t shift into higher gears, it will have to pull the plug.

Bitcoin miners are on the barricades

Many miners feel the same way as Uwe. “Companies may be able to cushion this, but we private miners are going to the dogs,” complains Marcel, who has been running a small mining facility since 2014. Uwe and Marcel met a few years ago in the Bitcointalk forum. Together they form a union for miners. Initially as a fixed idea, but more and more comrades-in-arms came together. And they have one leverage: the hashrate.

“In the meantime we’ve reached 15 percent,” says Uwe proudly. Hashrate: the computing power of the miners that keeps the Bitcoin blockchain running and protects it from manipulation. A powerful weapon in the wrong hands. Whoever controls 51 percent of the hash rate takes over the blockchain, can issue double transactions: the death knell for Bitcoin.

“If something doesn’t happen soon, there will be a bang,” Marcel is almost at the end of his patience. “Anyway, stop the damn halving,” reads one of his latest angry comments in an argument with Bitcoin Core developers on Github. But he has long since given up hope. “We don’t give a damn about them,” he scolds over the swelling roar of the mining equipment. You would see “what they get out of it”.

Halving failure or 51 percent attack

Uwe and Marcel have a plan. They want to convince other miners, get 51 percent of the hash rate by the halving, and if all threats don’t help, hijack the blockchain. “Of course we would sell our bitcoin beforehand,” says Uwe, “otherwise we would be pretty stupid”. Because it seems clear: If the blockchain gets out of hand, mass panic could be triggered, the Bitcoin price could implode, and the entire Bitcoin ecosystem could collapse like a house of cards.

The End for Bitcoin? “I wouldn’t care then,” Marcel shrugs. “I have to see for myself where I stay”. Bundling the hash rate – hardly feasible without the big ones. If you believe Uwe and Marcel, however, there have already been talks with the mining giants: Foundry, AntPool, even Binance. And they are said to have pledged their support. There should be a joint statement soon: in April, April.

Editor’s note: the last double word is no coincidence, this article is a canard.