Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne launched the second season of the tariff shield on Wednesday. After a complete freeze on regulated gas prices and a cap on electricity prices in 2022, both will be limited to increases of 15% in 2023. Far too many for consumer associations who warn against the end of regulated tariffs gas this summer.
Almost to everyone’s surprise, Wednesday, September 14, the government decided to tackle a thorny back-to-school subject: the price of energy in January 2023 with the end of the tariff shield in force which freezes regulated gas prices and caps those of electricity at 4% since October 2021. The Minister of the Economy had warned that public finances would not support equivalent aid, one year of more.
Up 15% so far
We will limit price increases to 15% for gas in January 2023 and 15% for electricity in February 2023, said Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. 15% instead of 120% is our commitment. Government announcements correspond on average to an increase in the monthly bill of 25 euros instead of 200 euros for households that heat with gas and 20 euros instead of 180 euros per month for those that heat with electricity.
A sharp increase which will apply in January 2023 for gas and in February for electricity. Except that the regulated tariffs (TRV) on which the government intervenes to limit damage for more than a year change every month for gas and twice a year (February and August) for electricity.
So, is the increase 15% before an annual freeze or will it be 15% each month for gas and twice a year for electricity? Between the lines, the first option holds the rope but thorns are already in its way.
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For consumers the bill will be dirty
In a press release published yesterday, the CLCV association declared that it took note of the government’s decisions. But for consumers the addition will be dirty, regrets its general manager Franois Carlier, fearing other increases, even limited in the coming months. An analysis shared by UFC-Que Choisir, which deplores the high level of the electricity and gas price capfar from the contained prices announced by Elisabeth Borne.
The 15% increase that consumers will have to face in 2023 (i.e. a level 2 to 3 times higher than inflation) significantly exceeds the tolerance threshold, particularly for the majority of households who will not benefit from the exceptional energy check, explains the association. She hoped a maximum increase of 10% this winter and does not even envisage that the capping level could change during 2023.
The compass is that we will continue to protect the French and the budget will be thought out accordingly, replied on France Info Gabriel Attal, questioned about the duration of the device. Asked by MoneyVox to find out if the increase in regulated electricity and gas prices would indeed be limited to 15% in 2023, Matignon did not respond to our request.
Those consumers who are not affected by the 15%
In electricity, 12million contracts (out of a total of 35million) are indexed on the markets. They are therefore not affected by the government’s freezing or capping measures. However, if their supplier’s prices soar, they can return to EDF’s TRVs free of charge and without interruption.
In gas, due to their end of programm, this has not been possible since 2019. TRVs only concern 7 million customers (TRV contract or indexes on them). The others are subject to the vagaries of the market. Bad timing, non-aligned market offers became mostly less attractive than TRVs in October 2021, for the first time since 2007.
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The end of regulated gas tariffs is scheduled for June 2023
If the government keeps the timetable for the tariff shield version 2023 unclear, another threat is emerging: the end of gas TRVs for June 2023. However, once these are removed, the State will no longer be able to intervene to freeze tariffs . As a result, 7 million households that depend on regulated gas prices will be weakened because they will have to choose a market offer in an unfavorable context.
Without frost, regulated gas prices would have already jumped by almost 60% in August compared to those of October 2021. In January, the increase should have been 200 euros per month for households that heat with gas. It will be 9 times less, until June. Faced with such figures, Jean-Sbastien Degouve, co-president of Opera nergie, does not see how TRVs cannot be maintained when we observe the protection they provide in terms of electricity in an upside-down market.
Before the summer, the Minister for Energy Transition assured MoneyVox that the timetable for the abolition of regulated gas tariffs will be kept while protecting the consumer. Emmanuel Macron, during the presidential campaign, pledged to maintain the tariff shield as long as the energy crisis lasts. She is not finished.
According to Jean-Sbastien Degouve, it is only in 2024 that prices will be lower. We will not return to the levels of 2020, but the urgency is the year 2023 which is a big challenge for the public authorities and for the wallets of consumers.