Lhe Mondial de l’Automobile opened on Monday, October 17, when motorists have the greatest difficulty in refueling due to the strike affecting refineries and fuel depots. The situation could have been the best promotion for the electric vehicle (EV), which will be the undeniable star of this show. Above all, it shows that the automobile remains essential for daily travel and that the French remain very dependent on oil. This is enough to measure the extent of the challenge that remains to be accomplished in order to succeed in this great industrial shift.
At this stage, going electric raises more questions than it answers. Whether it’s affordability or manufacturing, the EV isn’t the silver bullet, at least not yet. By setting itself the objective of banning the sale of combustion engine vehicles from 2035, the European Union has put pressure on an entire sector, which must now deal with an injunction which may make sense from an environmental point of view, but whose milestones remain unclear.
Accessibility, first. Manufacturers estimate that it will take between five and seven years to reduce the price difference between a thermal vehicle and its electric equivalent. In the meantime, the number of potential buyers threatens to collapse.
The idea of setting up a subsidized rental system with an option to purchase at 100 euros turns out to be more complicated than expected. The project will not see the light of day before 2024. By then, Emmanuel Macron has just announced an increase in the purchase premium, which for the most modest households will increase from 6,000 to 7,000 euros. Despite these aids, the EV will remain out of reach for many French people. Even if sales are starting to take off, even if more than a million are already driving on our roads, EVs represent barely 2% of the total fleet.
New uses
The technology must also overcome a number of obstacles. Only one in four French people believe in the advent of all-electric in 2035. The rate of installation of charging stations is not likely to reassure them. Of the 100,000 promised by the public authorities, barely three quarters have been installed, many of which are out of order due to lack of maintenance. Without an acceleration of investments in this area and an improvement in the autonomy of vehicles, the use of the EV will have difficulty in becoming widespread. Above all, its adoption will imply a new relationship with the car. To be truly ecological, it will have to be smaller and it will not have the same uses as today.
Many unknowns remain on the industrial consequences of the transition. Half of the value chain is still located in Asia. In addition, Europe must import the main components needed to manufacture batteries, the prices of which are exploding. If the French manufacturers try to accelerate to locate the assembly in their factories, nothing says that they will win the race against the clock engaged with Chinese competitors, who are ready to sweep on the Old Continent with cars which cost 20% to 30% cheaper.
There is also the question of the availability of carbon-free electricity in sufficient quantity. Finally, the social aspect of this industrial revolution promises to be painful. The assembly of an EV requires half the hours of work of a conventional vehicle, which will result in tens of thousands of job cuts in the sector. If the destination towards the all-electric is clear, the road which leads there promises to be winding.