On February 24, it was in particular with troops leaving from Belarus that Russia invaded Ukraine. Four months later, the regime of Alexander Lukashenko has never been so dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin, to whom it owes its political survival after his disputed re-election in August 2020. The Belarusian territory, which provides Russia with all the infrastructure necessary to conduct its war, now serves as a rear base for the head of the Kremlin.
A few hours before a meeting between the two leaders, Saturday June 25 in Saint-Petersburg, it is besides again from Belarus that about twenty Russian rockets were fired towards the Ukrainian military base of Desna. kyiv reacted by accusing Moscow of wanting ” to attract “ Minsk in the conflict.
At the risk of aggravating tensions with Europe and the United States, Vladimir Putin announced, on the same day, the delivery, ” in the coming months “, on the territory of its neighbour, Iskander-M missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. A prospect made possible by the new Belarusian Constitution, adopted following a sham referendum on February 27, which does away with the obligation imposed on Belarus to remain a “nuclear-free zone”.
“Having nuclear weapons has been Lukashenko’s dream for a long timeexplains Franak Viacorka, close adviser to the representative of the Belarusian opposition in exile, Svetlana Tsikhanovskaïa. But if he gets them, he will become too powerful in the eyes of the Kremlin. Putin will have to find a trick so that Lukashenko does not have control and thus remains his puppet. »
Lukashenko’s “bluff”
The invasion of Ukraine increased the vassalization of Belarus vis-à-vis Russia. The process is also reinforced by the sanctions imposed by the European Union on the Minsk regime, targeted measures against twenty-two senior officials, and trade restrictions. The former Soviet republic, already punished after the fraudulent re-election of Mr. Lukashenko, also lost the Ukrainian market, which represented 14% of its exports in 2021.
In a sign of the times, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on June 30 the opening of a Russian consulate general in the Belarusian town of Grodno, near the border with Poland and Lithuania, where was held, until Friday 1er July, 9e Forum of the regions of Belarus and Russia. Following a meeting with Mr. Lukashenko, Mr. Lavrov underlined their commitment to keep “a coordinated line on the international scene”and warned Westerners about the ” iron Curtain ” who is “already falling” between them and Russia.
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