To bring the unemployment rate below 5% by 2027, the government must present a “full employment” bill in early June.
By Marius Bocquet
© SARAH MEYSSONNIER / POOL / AFP
Published on
Subscriber-only audio playback
Ican France return to full employment in 2027? Bringing the unemployment rate below 5% within four years is the goal that Emmanuel Macron set himself during the presidential campaign in 2022. “The first thing that must be done for the purchasing power is to continue to fight for full employment, ”reaffirmed the President of the Republic during his interview on TF1 on Monday evening. According to figures from INSEE on Wednesday, the unemployment rate stood at 7.1% of the working population in France in the first quarter of 2023.
To achieve full employment, defined by an unemployment rate of less than 5% as defined by the International Labor Organization (ILO), the government must present a “full employment” bill in early June. According to the explanatory memorandum to the text, which the Ministry of Labor is beginning to send to the social partners and parliamentarians and that Point was able to consult, the latter provides in particular for “a fairer, more progressive and, ultimately, more effective control and sanction system concerning RSA recipients”.
Sanctions against RSA beneficiaries
Clearly, the bill should make it possible “in the event of a breach, to first temporarily suspend the payment of active solidarity income (RSA), without stopping support for the person, and with resumption of rights when the person respects its commitments, before a decision to delete or delist”, specifies the text. This possibility of sanction will intervene as soon as “we will have settled the other preliminary problems”, however specified Elisabeth Borne during her trip to Reunion last Saturday.
Among the “peripheral obstacles” to returning to work, the Prime Minister cited the problem of childcare. To help parents of children under the age of three, “forced to withdraw from the labor market or to reduce their professional activity, for lack of available and financially accessible childcare places”, the Ministry of Labor proposes to “create a significant number of new quality childcare places” and plans to “specify the governance of the policy for the reception of young children”, according to the explanatory memorandum to the “full employment” bill.
READ ALSOThe mirages of full employmentThis bill regulates the operator France Travail, which will succeed Pôle emploi on 1er January 2024. All job seekers, job seekers or people experiencing integration difficulties will be automatically registered. Currently, only 40% of RSA recipients are registered with Pôle Emploi, ie 840,000 people out of 2 million beneficiaries. The government finally intends to improve the access of people with disabilities to employment in the ordinary environment and to stop directing them immediately towards specific devices, according to the text.
Forecasts are pessimistic
During the 2022 presidential campaign, Emmanuel Macron had also proposed to condition the RSA to 15 to 20 hours of weekly activity facilitating professional integration. Eighteen departments are experimenting with this system in 2023. Last April, a decree finally approved the abolition of unemployment benefits for employees who leave their job without a legitimate reason. This was a provision of the unemployment insurance law, passed at the end of 2022.
Will these measures make it possible to restore an unemployment rate of less than 5% of the active population? For Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, president and founder of the Circle of economists, “France is on a trajectory of progress towards full employment which is very significant”. “If we succeed in accelerating changes in the labor market, salaries, working conditions, prospects, and the image we have of certain professions, we should undoubtedly achieve full employment in the four years to come,” said the economist.
However, the economic forecasts for the next two years are less optimistic. The French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) anticipates a rebound in unemployment to 7.9% at the end of 2024. In its projections for March, the Banque de France expects unemployment to reach 7.5% at the end of 2024. 2023, then 8.1% in 2024 and 2025. Estimates that compromise the government’s goal of full employment in 2027.