LCO emissions2 produced by the consumption of fossil fuels – oil, gas or coal – will exceed their record level in 2022, after the air hole due to Covid, according to a benchmark study published on Friday, November 11. Total emissions of this greenhouse gas, the main cause of global warming, including those produced by deforestation, will almost return to 2019 levels, leaving at this rate only one chance in two of avoiding exceeding a warming of 1.5°C in nine years, according to scientists from the Global Carbon Project.
CO emissions2 of fossil origin “expected to increase by 1% compared to 2021, to reach 36.6 billion tonnes, slightly more than the levels of 2019 before the Covid-19”, according to their calculations. This increase is mainly driven by the use of oil (+2.2%), with the resumption of air traffic, and coal (+1%). Emissions from coal, which have been declining since 2014, should increase by 1% and return to, or even exceed, their record level of that year.
“There is the conjunction of two factors, the continuation of the post-Covid recovery and the energy crisis” after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, explains to AFP Glen Peters, one of the authors of the study. published in the journal Earth Systems Science Data on the occasion of the international climate conference COP27. The GCP team, which brings together more than 100 scientists from 80 institutions, calculates CO emissions every year2as well as the remaining “carbon budget”, i.e. the upper limit of carbon dioxide emitted to remain below a given global temperature.
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Climate disasters on the rise
This temperature is in fact linked to the concentration of this powerful greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Concentration which has increased by 51% since the beginning of the industrial era, when we began to burn fossil fuels in large quantities, underlines the study. Scientists can thus translate the remaining “budget” into duration in order to meet the objectives of the Paris agreement, the cornerstone of the fight against global warming.
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At the current rate of “spending” of this budget, there remains only a one in two chance of achieving the most ambitious objective in nine years, limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 45% by 2030 to have a chance of achieving this. At age 30, there is a one in two chance of meeting the less ambitious target of +2°C, and at age 18 for +1.7°C.
However, with nearly + 1.2°C of warming already recorded, climatic disasters are already increasing around the world, as illustrated by the current year, with its procession of heat waves, droughts, floods or megafires. “We have made some progress,” notes climatologist Corinne Le Quéré, another author of the report, who points out that the trend increase in emissions from fossil fuels has gone from around 3% per year in the 2000s to 0.5 % per year over the last decade.
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“We have shown that climate policy works. But only concerted action on the level of that carried out against the Covid can bend the curve, ”she insisted. Among the world’s biggest polluters, the rebound in fossil emissions will be strongest in India in 2022, up 6% mainly due to coal consumption amid a strong economic recovery. The United States recorded + 1.5%.
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China, which should end at -0.9%, saw a sharp drop at the start of the year with the confinements linked to the zero-Covid policy and the construction crisis, even if the summer heat wave has then caused a decline in hydroelectricity and a rise in coal. The European Union, plunged into an energy crisis by the invasion of Ukraine, is expected to register -0.8%, with gas-related emissions collapsing by 10% and coal-related emissions jumping by 6.7%, against +0.9% for oil.
“Emissions are not falling as they should”
The rest of the world is expected to see an increase of 1.7%, mainly fueled by the recovery of air transport. Non-fossil emissions, around 10% of the total and mainly due to deforestation, are down slightly. And global warming is already affecting natural carbon sinks, which play a vital role in mitigating it. CO absorption2 by terrestrial sinks has thus been reduced by approximately 17% and that of the oceans by 4% during the decade 2012-2021.
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Due to the multiple crises, 2022 will not be a typical year from which we can draw obvious lessons, underline the authors. The 1% increase may not be “a long-term trend”, believes Corinne Le Quéré. But “emissions are not falling as they should”.