A few days after similar criticism from the High Council of Public Finances (HCFP), several senators in turn criticized the government’s “optimistic” forecasts for growth and inflation on Wednesday.
In terms of inflation or growth rates, the macroeconomic scenario adopted by the government is imbued with an optimism that is shared neither by the forecasts of the OECD, nor by those of the European Commission, attacked the senator Christian Bilhac (RDSE group) during a debate on the government’s roadmap for French public finances until 2027.
We are not on an average, normal trajectory, we are on top of everything, supported Jrme Bascher (Les Rpublicains). The government is optimistic on growth, very optimistic on inflation and interest rates. All is well in the end and in the end, by some miracle, we managed to drop below 3% of the public deficit, he said ironically.
You have decided to base your forecast on favorable assumptions. The uncertainty around your scenario therefore remains high, said centrist senator Vincent Capo-Canellas.
Present Wednesday evening in the Senate on behalf of the government, the Minister Delegate for Public Accounts Gabriel Attal defended himself from being excessively optimistic.
I would say that our forecasts are proactive. And I believe that we were right to be proactive in our previous forecasts, judged the minister, citing the example of the growth rate achieved by France in 2022 (2.6%), despite the doubts expressed by economic analysts. when the government had communicated a forecast close to this figure (2.5 then 2.7%).
For 2023, the government expects growth of 1%, higher than that expected by the Banque de France (0.6%) or the International Monetary Fund (0.7%).
In terms of inflation, the executive expects prices to increase by 4.9% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024.
In its opinion on the government’s roadmap for public finances, delivered at the end of April, the HCFP argues that the growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 (1.6%) seem optimistic, even if they are not out of reach.
Similarly, the decline in inflation hoped for by the executive seems rapid to the HCFP, guaranteeing the credibility of the trajectory of public finances.