When Joe Biden (78) and Vladimir Putin (68) meet in Geneva on Wednesday at 1 p.m., topics such as disarmament, climate and sanctions will be the focus. The two presidents want to spend four to five hours talking. Blick shows what the two most powerful men will probably talk about and what the chances of an agreement are (grading scale 1–6).
disarmament
fact It is the topic that is in focus in Geneva. 93 percent of all 13,400 nuclear weapons in the world could be operated by Biden or Putin at the push of a button. Igniting a single nuclear weapon would be devastating.
assessment Shortly after taking office, Biden had agreed with Putin to extend the New Start nuclear disarmament treaty suspended by Donald Trump (75) by five years. That gives hope. However, the agreements still have to be specified and, above all, implemented. Because of the current tense situation between the two states, this time around Geneva there will probably be nothing more than a commitment in the style of “A nuclear war must be prevented”. Chance of an agreement: 3
climate
fact This is not the first time they have spoken about climate protection. While Biden is investing almost two trillion dollars in the Green Deal, Putin is also ready to offer “a whole range” of joint climate protection projects. Because his country is particularly affected by forest fires and the thawing of permafrost in Siberia. Putin describes climate protection as a connecting element between West and East.
assessment Finally a topic that unites! However, Russia, with its size an important player in the Paris Agreement, can hardly afford to invest in new technology. The country is too run down. Biden will reiterate his fight, Putin will nod in agreement. Chance of an agreement: 4
corona
fact Vaccinations have been making headway since Biden hit the trigger in the United States. Putin has also adopted a high vaccination rate and is annoyed when vaccinations are delayed in individual regions. But what use is it if individual countries vaccinate their residents, but a large part of the world remains exposed to the virus due to poverty? Global coordination is needed to fight the pandemic.
assessment Both countries send vaccines to poorer countries. Russia primarily supplies emerging countries that missed out on the distribution battle for products from Western manufacturers. Biden and Putin must work together to remove the white spots on the world map and ensure that the virus is stopped even in remote and poor regions. A project with which both can distinguish themselves and which neither hurts. Chance of an agreement: 5
Human rights
fact Poison attacks on opposition members, persecution of homosexuals, attacks on demonstrators: Biden has announced that he wants to talk to Putin about human rights in Russia. At the end of May he said: “I will meet President Putin in Geneva in two weeks and I will make it clear that we will not watch them violate these rights.”
assessment Putin has already indicated what he thinks of Biden’s announcement: he has unceremoniously banned the organizations of the poisoned Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny (45). No, Putin will not allow anyone to interfere in domestic political matters. A constructive discussion on this topic is doomed to fail from the outset. Chance of agreement: 1
Sanctions
fact The US and the EU have imposed sanctions on Russia because of the annexation of Crimea, interference in the US elections in November and hacker attacks. Washington said that one of Moscow’s main strategies was to accuse Biden and his family of corruption in connection with doing business in Ukraine. Biden said of Putin: “He will pay his price for it.”
assessment Is it possible to have a solution-oriented conversation under such guidelines and after personal attacks? Probably with little success. Because of the painful sanctions, Putin will at least have to listen to Biden. It is to be hoped that such private taunts will not negatively affect other agenda items. Chance of an agreement: 2
China
fact The alliance with Europe shows that the USA is getting back the friends they lost with Trump. Meanwhile, Moscow is tying up with Beijing. The Russian ambassador to Beijing, Andrey Denisov (68), said that Russia would also discuss all China-related issues discussed in Geneva with Beijing.
assessment The impression is deceptive. Russia’s flattery with China should be seen less as true friendship and more as leverage against the United States. Especially when it comes to global issues such as disarmament and pandemics, all of the big players have to work together as partners. At another summit, China would also have to be brought on board. Chance of an agreement: 4
Ukraine conflict
fact The war in eastern Ukraine has already claimed over 13,000 deaths in seven years. There is no end in sight. A few weeks ago, Putin deployed his army on the border and increased maneuvers in the air and on the water. For its part, the United States has just pledged further military aid worth 150 million dollars to Ukraine.
assessment With his march on the Ukrainian border, Putin is probably trying, among other things, to sound out how far he can go with Biden. But that leaves no room for such games. It is also clear to Putin that if the Ukraine were to invade the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, he would have died and he would not be able to sell Russian gas to Europe. Chance of an agreement: 2