Nearly 11 million Portuguese were called to the polls on Sunday March 10 to elect deputies to the Assembly of the Republic. However, no party seems able to form a stable majority to govern the country. Neither the Socialist Party (PS), which lost 13 points compared to the 2022 legislative elections (28.7% of the vote, 77 seats) and its comfortable absolute majority. Nor the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition, which came first (29.5%, 79 seats), with a lead that is not only very short but not definitive as long as the emigrants’ vote is not counted.
In the absence of a clear winner, the far-right Chega (“enough”) party appears to be the big beneficiary of the election. With 18.1% of the votes, 11 points more than in 2022, he won 48 seats in the Assembly (out of 230), four times more. “Tonight we ended bipartisanship, welcomed the party leader, former sports commentator André Ventura, aged 41. Chega wanted to become a central part of the political system and we succeeded. » Eager to enter the government, he used the platform to put new pressure on the conservative AD coalition, led by the leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD, center right), Luis Montenegro, with the right-wing Center party. democratic and social (CDS) and a small monarchist party. “Only an irresponsible party would let the PS govern when we have the possibility of building a government of change,” he warned.
Throughout the campaign, Mr. Montenegro, 51, was categorical about his refusal to govern with Chega. On Sunday evening, he repeated his favorite phrase on this subject – ” No is no ” – while opening “to dialogue and consultation between parties and between leaders”, including Chega, in order to“offer the country conditions of governance and stability”.
A cyclical or structural surge?
However, we will have to wait until April 20 and the result of the vote of nearly 1.5 million Portuguese abroad to know the distribution of the last four seats and for conservative President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to appoint a prime minister. He will then have to obtain the confidence of the Chamber. In 2022, three of the four seats reserved for the numerous Portuguese emigrants had been won by the PS, which, if it happened again, could put it in the lead. However, the strong mobilization of “Bolsonaristas” based in Brazil, supporters of the former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, could now favor Chega.
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