Azerbaijan captured the Nagorno-Karabakh region last week. Azerbaijan has thus won the conflict for the time being. SRF foreign editor Calum MacKenzie, who is currently on site, explains the current situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan and further demands.
What happens next in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh?
Azerbaijan has gained complete control of the area and is now likely to have won the conflict. Armenia and the residents of Karabakh are unable to do anything about it.
Will the Armenians stay in Nagorno-Karabakh?
No. Many of them are fleeing to Armenia. After the long Azerbaijani blockade, they probably saw the attack coming and very few of them expect that they will ever be able to set foot in Nagorno-Karabakh again. It seems clear that all Armenians will leave Nagorno-Karabakh. Although Azerbaijan claims that the Armenian population can be “reintegrated” into Azerbaijan, no one believes that. Just as the Armenian population is now being expelled, the Azerbaijani population was once expelled. In this context, Azerbaijani propaganda speaks of revenge against Armenia.
Why didn’t Armenia put up more resistance to the Azerbaijani attack on Nagorno-Karabakh?
Compared to Azerbaijan, Armenia is militarily weak. Azerbaijan has a state-of-the-art military with weapons from Turkey and Israel. The country can afford this because it makes a lot of money from exporting gas. Armenia clearly lost the last Karabakh war in 2020. Armenia did not want to take the risk of such a defeat again, nor the risk that not only the Nagorno-Karabakh exclave would be attacked, but Armenia itself.
What happens next between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
Azerbaijan is now talking about forcing a corridor through Armenia. For Azerbaijan it is about a connection to its exclave Nakhichevan. Nakhichevan is surrounded by Armenia and Iran. This is recognized under international law. Azerbaijan demands that Armenia provide a corridor so that traffic can flow unhindered. The corridor would run across Armenian territory. Azerbaijan’s ally, Turkey, also makes this demand. But Armenia would rather not do this because it fears being cut off from its southern territory and from the border with Iran. Azerbaijan has already threatened a military attack on Armenia.
Is Russia abandoning its former ally Armenia?
Yes. This is the main reason why Armenia is defenseless. Russia was the protecting power of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. But with the war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Turkey have become more important partners for Russia. Russia can now sell its gas to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan sells its own gas to Europe. It’s almost like exchanging rings. And Turkey is also helping Russia circumvent sanctions. Therefore, Russia has supported Armenia less and less, and Armenia has turned to the West. But Russia didn’t appreciate that. Russia is very interested in this corridor because the stationing of Russian peacekeepers would give it new leverage against Armenia and Azerbaijan.