Artus – China and Europe, big losers of the next 30 years

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CHRONIC. Far from remaining major economic powers and increasing their GDP, they are in serious danger of seeing their growth collapse against the United States.

By Patrick Artus*

BMany investors still have confidence in the Chinese economy: in China, investment by foreign companies is at a record level. Europe, meanwhile, thinks it will move upmarket, become independent on the issue of strategic productions, and remain a great power.

Both of these beliefs are unfortunately erroneous. China will be affected by a double problem: demographic aging and the under-dimensioning of pension systems. The population of working age, in the next 30 years, will decrease on average by 1.25% per year; even with productivity gains of 3.5% per year – which is optimistic – China’s potential growth will only be 2.25% per year, compared to 3% in the United States. In three dec…

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