Attack or loss of influence
Iran’s dilemma could be dangerous for Hamas
October 23, 2023, 5:27 p.m
A week ago, Iran threatened to intervene in the Middle East war, but later backtracked. The country’s leadership is faced with a dilemma: on the one hand, they shy away from direct confrontation, but on the other hand, they do not want to lose face. Tehran is now apparently opting for a middle path.
Iran’s ultimatum seemed unmistakable and made the world sit up and take notice. A week after Hamas attacked Israel, the State Department warned arch-enemy Israel: Either you stop the attacks in Gaza or we will intervene. A short time later, however, things sounded different from the Iranian delegation to the United Nations. Iran will not intervene militarily as long as Israel does not attack its citizens or interests.
For decades, Iran has supported not only Hezbollah extremists, mainly active in Lebanon, but also Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This is how he expanded his influence around Israel. But now, according to several Iranian government officials, Iran faces a difficult decision: If Iran takes a sideline in Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip, it will lose influence. If he intervenes in the conflict, he risks open war with Israel, which in turn is supported by the USA. A tightrope act.
Tehran wants to avoid a major conflict
According to several representatives of Iranian security forces who did not want to be named, they want to find a middle ground: occasional, smaller forays by Hezbollah from Lebanon into Israel should be approved. Needlestick attacks by allied organizations against US targets are also considered justifiable. However, they want to avoid a major conflict that would involve Iran as a whole. “We are in contact with our friends from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah,” said Wahid Jalalsadeh, chairman of the Iranian parliament’s security committee, according to state media. “Their attitude is that they don’t expect military operations from us.”
Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to a question about its response to the crisis. Israel’s military declined to comment. According to Western and Israeli security circles, Israel would only attack Iran if it were attacked directly by Iranian troops.
“I sacrifice my life for Iran – but not for Gaza or Lebanon”
However, among the militant Arab groups surrounding Israel, Iran’s passive role, whose goal is to eliminate Israel, could be interpreted as a weakness. “Iran faces the dilemma of either sending Hezbollah into battle to save Hamas in Gaza or abandoning Hamas,” said Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and former mediator between Palestinians and Israelis.
What makes things more difficult for Iran is that it has to keep an eye on the domestic political situation. Months of protests continue to simmer following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s moral police. Added to this is the economic crisis, two Iranian government officials admit. The cry “I’m sacrificing my life for Iran – but not for Gaza or Lebanon” has been heard on the streets during protests against the regime for years.