Contents
Russia’s economy depends on revenue from oil and gas. That is why Ukraine is trying to disrupt this sector.
What happened? Ukraine is systematically attacking Russian oil facilities with drone attacks. In recent nights, drones have triggered several fires in refineries and factories around Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Why is Ukraine doing this? There are various reasons for this, as Margarete Klein, a military expert who specializes in Russia, tells SRF. On the one hand, this is the answer to the increasing Russian attacks on civilian residential areas with many deaths, which Ukrainian President Zelensky recently spoke about. “Moreover, given the Russian presidential election – or rather presidential vote – it is a signal to the Russian population that the country is at war. The aim is to increase concern in order to put pressure on the Russian leadership.”
Legend:
A screenshot from a video from Telegram on January 19, 2024. Burning oil tanks after a drone attack in Klintsy, a town in Russia’s Bryansk region, about 60 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Keystone/Telegram/Alexander Bogomaz
How does this affect the conflict? Ukraine wants to harm Russia economically and militarily: individual oil refineries that were attacked were important for supplying fuel to the Russian armed forces in the fight against Ukraine. Ukraine also hopes that the attacks will noticeably damage fuel production in Russia. “Sowing in Russia will be very difficult, which means that food prices will rise dramatically from the middle of summer,” wrote former Deputy Interior Minister Anton Herashchenko on Network X. Fuel shortages could also drive up prices for other goods.
How does Russia protect itself? According to the Russian Defense Ministry in Moscow, air defense intercepted 58 Ukrainian drones on Wednesday night and in the morning hours. 29 aircraft were shot down over the Voronezh region alone, and another 11 over the Belgorod region. This military information could not be independently verified.
How does Russia react to this? The Moscow military does not seem to have found a real remedy against the more advanced drones from Ukraine. “Our soldiers are doing everything necessary,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, according to the Russian news agency Tass. The anti-aircraft system is working. Whether industrial targets need to be better protected is a question for the Ministry of Defense. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin said in a TV interview that the attacks were intended to disrupt the presidential election scheduled for Sunday.
How important are such oil refineries for Russia? Oil and gas are the two most important sources of revenue for the Russian state budget. “Therefore, it is Russia’s core economic capability that is being attacked here. “It also has a highly symbolic character,” says military expert Klein.
What impact does that have? This has little immediate impact. These oil refineries were on fire and can most likely be extinguished. Expert Klein estimates that two of the affected refineries account for around 12 percent of the total oil processing capacity in Russia. “The question is how long they were put out of action. I believe this is just the beginning. If it were possible to carry out such attacks again and again for longer, the damage would be much higher. At the moment it seems to be manageable.”