Levolution of international relations in the 21st centurye century follows a slope which leads to a new world war. It began with three successive crises, security on September 11, 2001, financial with subprimes in 2007-2008, health with the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. These three crises are respectively due to Islamic terrorism, in the United States and to China, the three most active forces of the time.
The slope has accelerated with open conflicts, in Ukraine then in Gaza, conflicts which are globalized wars – and not global, but they are like room drivers before the combat sport that will be the more direct confrontation of great powers. No matter the pretexts, an unfortunate assassination, one attack too many, an incident worthy of The Trojan War will not take place [de Jean Giraudoux, 1935]. But how did we get here, and can we still prevent it?
“How did we get here? » : in 1914, after the entry into the war, this was the question posed to the German Chancellor, Bethmann-Hollweg, his predecessor von Bülow. And the other to raise his big arms: “Ah, if we only knew!” » The origins of the conflict in perspective are undoubtedly multiple, but the main responsibility lies with the United States and its international behavior since the fall of the Berlin Wall, both for what it did not do and for what it ‘they did.
What they did not do: reorganize the international system after 1989, reform the UN, reintroduce Russia into the international game, negotiate pan-European security. Everyone was waiting for the American proposals, which did not come. Claiming to be a leader, the indispensable nation, the country that holds the world together, imposes responsibilities.
However, the lack of international vision of successive presidents, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, has had cumulative effects. Their action was the polar opposite of the creation of the UN in 1945 and the democratization of Germany, Italy and Japan. The result ? The United States, and the planet, fell asleep in the world of Francis Fukuyama and woke up in that of Samuel Huntington.
Military standoff
What they did: reject multilateralism, militarize international relations to the detriment of diplomacy – we no longer negotiate anything –, develop a sort of security autism in the name of their national interests. Expand NATO to the borders of Russia, treat it as a fallen country or as an enemy, support the policy of annexation and colonization of Netanyahu’s Israel, even though it was contrary to the agreements of Oslo of which they were the guarantors. “They sow the wind, they will reap the storm”it’s also in the Bible.
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