The sanitary turn of the screw announced by Emmanuel Macron, Monday, July 12, may have a doping effect on the economy. This is, in any case, the opinion of the services of the Ministry of the Economy and Finance, which revised upwards their growth forecasts for this year, in the wake of the intervention of the Head of State. . Better protected by an acceleration of vaccination, the recovery, by boosting tax revenues, could reduce the public deficit in 2021.
Banking on a strong rebound in consumption and activity at the start of the school year, Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday that growth would be higher than the executive’s forecasts this year, and that it would reach 6%, a point of more than planned. An optimism taken up by Bercy, “Under the assumption of the control of the epidemic situation in the second semester allowed by the health pass and the acceleration of the vaccination campaign”, estimates the ministry in a document submitted to Parliament, which was preparing to debate, this Thursday, July 15 in the morning, the orientation of public finances in the perspective of the preparation of the 2022 budget.
“Do not assume that the health pass will reduce activity, on the contrary it is the best protection for the activity “, Said Thursday the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, in front of the deputies. “This growth figure depends directly on our collective mobilization in the face of the virus (…). Vaccination is growth, vaccination is security, vaccination is employment. “
“Only indications”
This more vigorous rebound would in turn reduce the public deficit to below 9% this year, now estimates Bercy. Digged by the weight of emergency measures intended for companies affected by health restrictions since the spring, it was until then assessed at 9.4% after, already, a first review. “These are only indications, not indicators, tempers Eric Woerth, the chairman of the finance committee of the Assembly. In times of pandemic, there is no longer a reliable indicator. “
The main lines of the budget presented to the Assembly on Thursday morning by Mr. Le Maire and the Minister for Public Accounts, Olivier Dussopt, are thus only provisional. The measures announced by the Head of State are not yet integrated, and should be the subject of work during the summer. The extension of the “youth guarantee”, this allowance paid to young people without employment or training in return for an integration path, renamed “engagement income” by Emmanuel Macron, is not funded at this stage and could cost several billion. “We will put the necessary means”, assured Bruno Le Maire.
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