Beijing could come to Moscow’s aid in Ukraine and openly challenge the liberal world order. In a telephone call, the American President therefore warned his Chinese counterpart against closing ranks with Moscow.
President Joe Biden met with China’s ruler Xi Jinping virtually in the Situation Room of the White House on Friday, March 18, 2022.
During the two-hour phone call between American President Joe Biden and Chinese head of state Xi Jinping on Friday, nothing less than the liberal world order was at stake. According to American information, Russia has asked China for financial and military aid to cushion Western sanctions and to receive supplies for its army in Ukraine. Beijing has a particularly great responsibility to use its influence over Moscow to end the war in Ukraine and defend international law, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday. “But instead, China is moving in the opposite direction, refusing to condemn this aggression and pretending to be a neutral mediator.”
The US is giving China a choice
In the past, China has always upheld central principles of international law such as the territorial integrity of states or non-interference in internal affairs. But Beijing has not yet condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an illegal invasion. The Chinese leadership has dismissed the American information that Moscow asked them for arms supplies as false. Washington is so concerned, however, that Blinken sharpened the tone ahead of the Biden-Xi call on Thursday: “China will bear responsibility for any action it takes in support of Russian aggression, and we will not hesitate to impose costs.”
The war in Ukraine presents China with a colossal decision that could change world history. As Biden said from previous talks with Xi, the Chinese head of state has repeatedly told him that democracies are over and the future belongs to authoritarian systems. With this understanding, Xi probably also spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin in February before the Winter Olympics signed a joint declarationin which they described the friendship between their countries as “boundless” and spoke out against a new expansion of NATO.
Convinced of the superiority of authoritarian states, Xi probably also counted on a quick Russian victory in Ukraine, which took the despondent West by surprise. Now, however, things have turned out differently: Thanks to Western arms deliveries and tough sanctions, a Russian defeat in Ukraine no longer seems to be out of the question. Should that happen, Putin’s regime could also falter. In the event of a democratic turnaround in Moscow, Beijing would lose its key partner to undercut the US-led liberal world order. But if Xi now rushes to help Putin to prevent such a scenario, he himself risks a break with the West and, in the long term, trade relations with the largest markets for Chinese products.
Beijing hopes for quick peace
In order to extricate itself from this dilemma, China seems to be hoping for a quick ceasefire in Ukraine. In the evening, the White House published only a brief report on the content of the conversation between the two heads of state: Biden had explained to Xi “the consequences should China materially support Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine,” it said. For his part, according to Chinese media, Xi suggested that not only Ukraine, but also the US and NATO should negotiate with Russia to address both Moscow’s and Kiev’s security concerns. The current situation in Ukraine is something China doesn’t want to see, Xi said. “China has always stood up for peace and against war.” All parties to the conflict must now work together in order to facilitate a speedy peace.
However, there is still no sign of a ceasefire in Ukraine, even though Moscow and Kyiv are apparently talking about a 15-point plan behind the scenes. For a peace solution, both sides would have to make painful compromises. A ceasefire without the early withdrawal of Russian troops also harbors major risks for Ukraine. Moscow could easily keep the conquered areas occupied and prepare for a new offensive during a breathing space.
And as long as the war in Ukraine continues and Beijing does not take a clear position, the Chinese dilemma will not end either.