© Reuters
Investing.com – Following a weekend of hesitation, the week started the week with a sharp fall on Monday, falling to a low of $39,460 overnight, the lowest since December 3, 2023, and remaining close to this low point this Tuesday morning.
Note that most of the fall occurred between 11 p.m. last night and 1 a.m. this Tuesday, a period of less than two hours during which the price of BTC fell by more than 5.7%. Furthermore, Bitcoin is now down more than 18% from its peak of $48,750 on January 11 following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.
Moreover, the fall of crypto yesterday partly resulted from the continuation of the correction which was triggered following the approval of BTC ETFs, especially since certain data suggests that ETFs lead to inflows of funds less massive than expected on the market.
Indeed, if the ETFs of BlackRock (NYSE:) (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) for example exceeded one billion dollars of assets under management during the week following their opening, these figures must however be put into perspective. by multibillion-dollar outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC product as investors took profits or turned to other less expensive instruments, as well as by outflows from Bitcoin futures ETFs.
This suggests that the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has given way more to a game of musical chairs than to real market growth.
Macroeconomic factors also played a role in the fall of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, as rate cut expectations for the March Fed meeting continue to recede.
Indeed, the Investing.com Fed rate barometer showed this Tuesday morning a probability of only 42.6% that the central bank will lower its rates in March, compared to 47.2% the day before, and 74.8% a week ago.
In this regard, it will be recalled that several key macroeconomic indicators are likely to impact these expectations during the week, notably the US services PMI on Wednesday, the GDP for the last quarter of 2023 on Thursday, and the PCE price index on Friday.
Technical thresholds to monitor on Bitcoin
From a graphical point of view, we note that the return of below the major psychological threshold of $40,000 constitutes an important bearish signal.
On the other hand, the 100-day moving average, currently near current prices, at $39,250 could act as support, before another chart support towards $38,000.
A rebound from current prices is therefore not ruled out, although traders may be hesitant to push BTC above $40,000 again without a clear fundamental rationale. If this comes to fruition, $41,000 and $42,000 will be the first potential resistances to consider.
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