Bitcoin price before the breakout? Miners hold their breath

The Bitcoin price is again targeting the all-time high. Even for the miners, at 60,000 US dollars, the end of the flagpole does not seem to have been reached by a long way. The market update.

No question about it: The first quarter was tough: Driven by massive price increases in the key currency Bitcoin, the total market capitalization of all crypto assets has risen from $ 880 million to over $ 2.1 trillion since January.

Total market capitalization since January 2021. Source: Coingecko

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The Altcoins – crypto currencies alongside BTC – have increasingly dug the industry leader in the last three months. Bitcoin’s share of total market capitalization, the so-called Bitcoin dominance, has fallen from over 68 percent since January 1 to below 56 percent at the time of going to press. This is the lowest level since May 2019.

Bitcoin dominance over the course of the year. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s battle with the USD 60,000 hurdle

The Altcoins benefited from the fact that the Bitcoin bulls have been working off the USD 60,000 mark for weeks – at least so far without sustainable success. The strong price increases that the top altcoins Ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Binance Coin (BNB) have recorded since the beginning of April are all the more significant. With increases of 27 percent (ETH), 109 percent (BNB) and 141 percent (XRP), the top 3 Altcoins were able to catch up with the number 1 crypto currency in the past two weeks Percent.

Lurking for the all-time high: HODL Waves are bullish

The fact that Bitcoin seems to be climbing to a new all-time high despite several failed attempts at breakout is nevertheless optimistic – the massive price correction feared by some and anything but untypical for BTC has so far failed to materialize. In addition, some indicators suggest that more and more Bitcoin investors and miners are keeping their feet – or hands – still, because they expect further increases in the Bitcoin price.

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One of these indicators is the “HODL Waves” provided by Glassnode’s blockchain analysts. The HODL Waves arrange the distribution of Bitcoin units according to their age. A look at Glassnode’s chart shows that the proportion of Bitcoin units that are held for a long time is significantly larger compared to the Bull Run in late 2017.

Bitcoin HODL Waves since May 2017. Source: Glass node

Many are now turning their gaze to the Bitcoin miners, whose behavior often provides indications for the further course development. The reason for this is obvious: after all, their daily bread includes selling Bitcoin to finance their operations. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) provides a metric for classifying miner’s sales. This sets the BTC that leave the miner’s wallets in relation to the 1-year moving average. The following applies: A value above 2 signals that most miners are selling. The miners have been remarkably quiet here since the beginning of March.

Miners Position Index over the year. Source: Cryptoquant

Not even the all-time high of $ 61,712 on March 13th managed to lure Bitcoin miners out of reserve. The obvious conclusion is that a BTC rate of $ 60,000 is far from the end of the story for them.

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