©Reuters
Investing.com – The stock fell sharply on Monday, falling to a low of $40,280 in the evening, compared to a high of over $44,700 last Friday, and is showing towards $41,700 this Tuesday morning following a slight rebound.
Remember that yesterday was rather calm from the point of view of crypto news and the economic calendar, which will not be the case this Tuesday, while investors will closely monitor the publication of the latest crypto data. US inflation.
Thus, the correction of cryptocurrencies yesterday could be explained by a desire for caution on the part of investors. This is all the more likely as another major event will take place on Wednesday, with the last Fed meeting of 2023.
Indeed, today’s CPI and tomorrow’s Fed meeting could significantly influence expectations about what the Fed decides early next year.
For now, the Investing.com FOMC rate barometer shows a nearly 50% chance that the Fed will cut rates at the March 20 meeting (and a status quo on Wednesday).
A higher-than-expected CPI and a hawkish Fed would undoubtedly lower this probability further, to the detriment of bitcoin. Conversely, if a rate cut in Q1 2024 becomes the most likely scenario, as was the case before last Friday’s stronger than expected NFP report, we should expect a rally in Bitcoin and its peers.
Technical thresholds to monitor on Bitcoin
From a graphical point of view, we note that the fall on Monday did not call into question the underlying upward trend, as we see on the daily chart below.
On the other hand, a break below the key threshold of $40,000 would begin to invalidate the uptrend, and put the $38,000 zone in sight. If the rise resumes the psychological thresholds of $42,000, $43,000 and $44,000 will be potential resistances, before Friday’s peak at $44,700, then the threshold of $45,000.