For many months, the Republicans have been blocking urgently needed new aid to Ukraine, thereby stabbing the defenders in the war against Russia. The Ukrainian soldiers are rationing their ammunition and their calls for support are becoming increasingly desperate. But in the USA the Republicans, Donald Trump and his party wing are in the election campaign against the Democrats and are fighting for power within the party. “The Republican Party is in a situation that is entirely of its own making,” says US historian and political scientist Geoffrey Kabaservice. The party’s interests are now more important than those of the country. The exit is open.
ntv.de: Mr. Kabaservice, new aid to Ukraine is extremely necessary for Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia, but the Republicans have been blocking it for months. Can the Republican Party still distinguish between legislative and election campaigns?
Geoffrey Kabaservice: The Republican Party is like a planet with gravitational forces acting on it from different directions. There is a part of the Republican caucus in Congress that actually wants to govern and pass things like Ukraine aid. Then there is Donald Trump, who has his own agenda, very much dictated by his own campaign needs. And the MAGA faction (“Make America Great Again”, Trump’s supporters in Congress), who do what they think Trump wants or who simply try to sabotage the Republican Party and the establishment. It is difficult to determine which group has the most influence in the party at any given time or issue.
Some Republican lawmakers say their party colleagues are repeating Russian propaganda and have “infected a good portion of the base.” Marjorie Taylor Greene, who belongs to the populist MAGA wing, says she wants to hold peace negotiations with Russia. Are these just power games within the party, or are they serious goals?
The historian and political scientist Geoffrey Kabaservice conducts research for the US think tank Niskanen Center in Washington DC
To a certain extent, these are power games. If we think about conventional left-right politics, supplying weapons to Ukraine would have been Ronald Reagan’s conservative approach (former president and Republican, editor’s note). Populism complicates the way we talk about ideology. We are witnessing waning leadership in the Republican Party. In the past, a Marjorie Taylor Greene would have been crushed like a beetle. It is not dependent on the Republican Party. She has grassroots support, making her better funded than most members of Congress. And she has Trump’s support.
What can she do with it?
She doesn’t necessarily have a free hand. She has announced that she will remove Speaker Mike Johnson from the House of Representatives if he puts Ukraine aid on the ballot. It is not clear whether Donald Trump would agree to this plan. Because in some ways, the chaos among Republicans in the House of Representatives is hurting Trump. I suspect that Trump is saying to Republicans: You know it’s only good for Democrats. There is a political advantage for populists to vote against Ukraine aid by claiming that Volodymyr Zelensky is a corrupt dictator, that Russia has the better arguments. It is not known whether there is any collusion between these Republicans or MAGA forces in general and the Russians. But there is no doubt that the Russians are picking up on these messages and spreading them, that they are very useful to them, that there is at least a tacit kind of working relationship between Russia and its disinformation services and the MAGA faction of the Republican Party.
There was already a compromise negotiated over months with US President Joe Biden and the Democrats with concessions on measures for the southern border. At the last moment, the Republicans pulled the plug. If the chaos is not in the interest of the Republicans or Trump, what is the point of dragging out the whole Ukraine aid process? In the end, they could still agree to new military aid.
We remember the days when politicians were willing to put the country above the party or their own interests. That is clearly no longer the case. With the border agreement, the Democrats would have given up more of their positions than ever before, and the Republicans didn’t want or expect much more than they had already gotten. But from the Republican perspective, the border must remain a problem for Donald Trump to win the election. After a passed Ukraine deal, the normal communication would be: We blocked funding for Ukraine long enough, the Democrats finally gave in, we won. So they could end up trying to sell it to the public. But anything Congress passes will be seen as a victory for Democrats and Biden. And many Republicans don’t want this. No matter what it’s about.
From the outside, the situation seems like an absurd Hollywood film: There is a majority for new aid to Ukraine, including in the House of Representatives, but Johnson does not schedule the vote. Couldn’t this majority simply build up so much pressure that he has no way out? What is happening there?
There are many factors that play a role. One is that Republicans could have won a significant majority in the House of Representatives in 2022. But that didn’t happen because Trump interfered in the primaries and supported these crazy MAGA figures who won’t win an election. This means that a potentially sizable majority in which a few crazy people could have been ignored has shrunk to one in which the crazy people are crucial. Many in the Republican establishment have already given up because they’re fed up with it. Not long ago, Mike Gallagher was considered a possible future Republican president, or speaker. Now he’s gone, he probably won’t even return to politics because he can’t stand it.
So what can Johnson do?
There is not a good atmosphere between them: speaker Mike Johnson and Marjorie Taylor Greene
(Photo: IMAGO/USA TODAY Network)
Johnson would have to work with the Democrats on Ukraine aid to get what he wants. But much of the Republican Party base would see this as a betrayal. Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was even driven out of office because of routine budget financing with Democratic votes. This was a self-destructive move by the Republican Party. McCarthy has done more good for the party internally than Johnson ever will. But there is a mentality, promoted by Trump, that working with the Democrats, no matter the issue, is simply treason. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz and the rest of these crackpots are seen as fringe figures, but they have considerable influence because of the majority.
When McCarthy was elected, this fringe group negotiated that in the future one representative would be enough to schedule a vote on his removal. Now MPs can constantly threaten to do so. So with very few votes they managed to gain a lot of power.
McCarthy has claimed that the Democrats betrayed him because they promised him in negotiations for the speaker’s post that they would save him with their votes if the worst came to the worst. But they didn’t do that. The situation is currently similar. But if the MAGA Republicans try to unseat Johnson, the Democrats could save him with their votes.
So Johnson is simply afraid of losing his job or falling deeply?
It seems so. Republicans find themselves in an almost impossible situation because just to keep the government running (with the passage of budget funding, editor’s note) requires a certain level of democratic cooperation. Let’s say Johnson falls on his own sword over a vote on things like Ukraine aid and a southern border deal. He is voted out. The situation would be no different for the next speaker. Johnson’s election took weeks. During this time, Parliament does nothing. Johnson’s motives may also have little to do with self-interest: to avoid exposing the country to greater political paralysis while it faces serious problems at home and abroad. But it could also be cowardice or opportunism because he doesn’t want to give up his post. It depends on how you look at it.
What does all of this say about Republicans?
At every opportunity, the Republican Party has chosen to pander to the marginalized rather than put them in their place. She finds herself in a situation that is almost entirely self-inflicted. You too would not concern yourself with Donald Trump’s candidacy and all the possible effects on the current ability to govern if (the Republican Senate faction leader, editor’s note) Mitch McConnell allowed a few more senators in the impeachment trial on January 6, 2021 would have to vote to convict Trump. The same applies at all levels. The party could have marginalized Marjorie Taylor Greene much earlier and more effectively. You could have voted to convict Matt Gaetz for all of the sex crimes he is rightly accused of. There are a lot of things they could have done. But every time the party made the wrong decision.
Roland Peters spoke to Geoffrey Kabaservice