(CercleFinance.com) – The month of December is starting on a strong note, with the gain having stood at around +0.4% since 10 a.m. this morning.
The Paris Stock Exchange gained nearly 0.6% over the week, which will be the 5th consecutive increase since October 26.
The CAC40 is pulled towards 7,345/7,350 by Worldline (+5%) and Essilor (+2%)… but the volumes remain poor with barely €1.1 billion in 7 hours of trading (and even the day before when the volumes would have exploded to 7 billion euros, it was only trading at 1.5 billion euros at the same time.
Europe remains well oriented with the E-Stoxx50 at +0.5%, a score higher than the US indices with a decline of -0.1% in the S&P500 which remains capable of aligning its 19th session of increase out of 23 …the Dow Jones gaining +0.1%.
The US indices are falling imperceptibly after comments from Jerome Powell who considers it premature to talk about a rate cut (adequate figures will be needed for several months) and confirms that an increase remains on the table… but it is clearly not not believed and his words are pure rhetoric.
Wall Street prefers to believe Gldman Sachs who now believes in an easing of the price of money from the 2nd quarter of 2024.
Goldman Sachs sees oil moving between $80 and $100 in 2024, meaning that falling energy prices will no longer be the driver of lower inflation.
If the CAC and the S&P500 have just closed their best month of the year (see for 43 years), many analysts point out that the worst-case scenario is now ruled out, which suggests a new sequence of increases for the markets. ‘actions.
The month of December is traditionally a good month for the stock markets thanks to year-end balance sheet adjustments, which see managers sell less performing securities to favor winning stocks in order to make their portfolios more attractive.
On the figures side, the contraction of the manufacturing industry in the United States slowed down in November, according to the monthly ‘ISM’ (Institute for Supply Management) survey published this Friday.
The index came out perfectly unchanged last month at 46.7, the same level as in October, while economists expected it to rise to 47.8.
The new orders sub-index increased to 48.3 after 45.5 the previous month, still in the contraction zone (below the threshold of 50 points), while that measuring employment fell to 45.8 compared to 46.8 in October.
In the same register of precursors of industrial activity, investors took note this morning of the PMI HCOB index for the manufacturing industry of the euro zone, produced by S&P Global
This recovered from 43.1 in October to 44.2 in November, its highest level since last May, but still signals a strong contraction in the sector.
The data again highlights declines in activity, new orders, the volume of purchases and inventories, but the outlook for activity has recovered. At the same time, purchase prices fell sharply again.
On the bond market, the 10-year T-Bonds eased by -7Pts towards 4.28% (despite Powell’s remarks), the German Bund of the same maturity posted -7Pts 2.38% and the French OAT relaxed by -8Pts towards 2.9400%, a ‘lowest’ since the end of summer.
On the currency side, the dollar recovered by +0.5%, with the Euro falling symmetrically towards $1.0440.
On the energy market, Brent is not benefiting from yesterday’s announcement of a ‘voluntary’ reduction (nothing binding) in the production of OPEC+ countries and marks a decline of 1.8%, to $81.5 per barrel.
In news from French companies, Pierre & Vacances publishes a net result of -20.6 million euros for its 2023 financial year, compared to +325 million the previous year, but an adjusted EBITDA of 137.1 million, growing by 74% compared to the 2019 financial year (pre-Covid reference).
TotalEnergies announced on Friday that it had signed an agreement with the British group Prax providing for the sale of its minority stake in a refinery located in South Africa.
Thales indicates that it has signed an agreement to ensure the entirety of its pension plan in the United Kingdom, a decision which will result in the recognition of a financial charge.
Finally, taking note of the opening of insolvency procedures with regard to several entities of the Signa group, Peugeot Invest indicates that its exposure to this group represents 2.9% of the revalued gross assets, which amounted to 6.4 billion euros at the end of June.
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