(CercleFinance.com) – After vegetating around equilibrium throughout the morning, the CAC40 took off at midday and finally ended the session with a gain of 1.86%, at 7141 points, a performance which allows it to make up for a good part of its decline the day before (-2.9%).
The Parisian index was driven by the rebound in banking stocks, notably with +2.3% for Societe Generale and +3.1% for BNP Paribas.
At 1:30 p.m., investors learned of a slowdown in the rise in prices in the United States in February, which reached its lowest for nearly two years, according to official statistics published.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, following a 0.5% increase in January, the Labor Department said.
Over one year, the CPI index rose by 6%, its lowest level since September 2021, compared with a figure of 6.4% in January.
These figures are fully in line with the expectations of economists, who predicted an average monthly increase of 0.4% in the CPI index and 6% on an annual basis.
Conversely, the ‘core’ CPI benefited from a decline in the prices of used cars and health services, but it came out at 5.5%, in line with analysts’ forecasts, which noted that it is This is a low since December 2021…still part of a ‘base effect’ (for consumers, their purchasing power is still seriously damaged).
Inflation has therefore not said its last word, but the markets seem to think that a major shift has just occurred and that the Fed has no choice but to limit, or even postpone, its rate hike program. of interest in order to avoid any ‘systemic’ risk.
According to the CME’s FedWatch Barometer, market participants are pricing a 47% chance of a Fed dovish next week, with a 25 basis point hike at 53% ( and expectations of +50Pts have fallen to zero).
Strategists agree, however, that markets are unlikely to calm down anytime soon.
The CBOE Volatility Index, often dubbed the ‘barometer of fear’, which measures expectations of movements in the S&P 500, rose further yesterday to reach new highs since last autumn, before falling back from -7 % around 23.60.
The resurgence of volatility that accompanied the SVB affair could therefore be a harbinger of new shocks to come.
In its latest annual report, Credit Suisse acknowledged having identified “significant weaknesses” in the internal control of its financial statements for the 2021 and 2022 financial years.
The bond markets, which had recorded a quite simply historic rise the day before (and short rate cuts never seen in 401 years), saw yields tighten a little, with +14Pts on our OATs at 2.945%, +16Pts on Bunds at 2.442%, +13Pts on the Spanish ‘Bonos’ (at 3.51%) which are not slipping, despite the higher than expected level of inflation in Spain.
Note a rise of +15Pts in the yield of US T-Bonds towards 3.665% which seems to contradict the somewhat ‘hedonic’ reading of the CPI by Wall Street.
The Dollar recovers +0.3% to 1.0700/E
In corporate news, Vivendi enters into exclusive negotiations with the IMI group, a subsidiary of CMI, for the sale of 100% of the capital of Editis. Vivendi announces that it has received several offers for the sale of the entire capital of Editis.
Icade and Primonial Reim have signed an exclusivity agreement relating to the purchase of Icade’s stake in Icade Santé. The total valuation of Icade’s stake in its Health Property Investment is estimated to date at €2.6 billion, based on ANR NTA at 31 December 2022.
Finally, Carrefour announces the opening in April of a new virtual store on the Rakuten site’s marketplace. This partnership will notably enable Carrefour to join the Rakuten affiliate program.
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