(Boursier.com) — At market close, the CAC40 breaks with a good series of 4 consecutive sessions of increase. The flagship index of the Parisian market lost -0.2% this Monday, but still remained on the high ground, finishing at 8,148 points.
The indices should not move too much between now and Wednesday evening and the monetary policy decision of the Central Bank of the United States. While there is little doubt about the status quo, the market will be particularly attentive to the evolution of the ‘dot plots’, i.e. the expectations of FOMC members in terms of rates. After the latest inflationary surges, Goldman Sachs only anticipates a rate cut of 75 basis points this year compared to 100 points previously, while JP Morgan has reduced its forecast in this area from 125 to 75 points as well. Still on the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan will be particularly watched tomorrow as it should put an end to the era of negative rates in the archipelago.
In the euro zone, inflation slowed in February at an annual rate, in line with the first estimate. Over one year, the consumer price index calculated according to European standards (HICP) stood at 2.6% (2.8% in January). From one month to the next, inflation in the 20 countries having adopted the single currency jumped by 0.6%, a pace in line with consensus. Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, inflation stood at +0.6% monthly in January, and 3.3% annually. A narrower measure of price changes, which excludes alcohol and tobacco, shows that inflation stood at +0.7% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. .
On the oil market, a barrel of WTI increased by +1.35% to $82.13. Brent gained +1.17% to $86.35. Iraq, which is OPEC’s second largest producer, will reduce its crude exports to 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming months, in order to compensate for exceeding the Organization of Nations’ quota. oil exporters and allies (OPEC+) since January.
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On the currency front, the euro is trading at $1.0874 against the greenback.
An ounce of gold climbs +0.19% to $2,159 (1,986 euros). Bitcoin fell by -3.15%, returning to $66,997.
Rising values
* Alstom (+6.38% to 13.09 euros). Despite its withdrawal from the CAC40 this Monday, the stock is supported by Deutsche Bank’s recommendation increase to ‘buy’ on the issue. The German banker, who is aiming for 17 euros, believes that “the worst is now behind the group”. Management plans to provide more details in May on its debt reduction program, which could create a ‘short squeeze’ while the stock is one of the most sold in Europe, says the broker. The dilution resulting from a possible capital increase and the risks of executing the project are now well understood, with the stock down 54% year-on-year and trading at a discount of around 40 to 50% compared to peers. With the stabilization of WCR indicators, the broker sees significant upside potential on both margins and FCF.
* Hoffmann Green Cement (+3.67% to 9.32 euros). The carbon-free cement specialist achieved a significant increase in 2023 turnover of 6 ME (2.2 ME a year earlier), and higher than the initial objective of 4.5 ME. Ebitda stood at -5.2 ME (-6.6 ME in 2022). The current operating profit is -8.5 ME (-9.36 ME as of December 31, 2022). The 2023 net result is a loss of -7.9 ME. Cash available as of December 31, 2023 amounts to €25 million. Hoffmann Green Cement confirms its objective, by 2026, of a turnover of 130 ME and an Ebitda margin of 40%.
* Valneva (+1.73% to 3.521 euros). The vaccine specialist from Saint-Herblin, in Loire-Atlantique, has concluded an agreement with the American funds specializing in the health sector Deerfield Management Company and OrbiMed. He aims to defer the start date of repayment of his loan by 18 months. The repayment of the first tranche of $100 million will begin in January 2026 instead of July 2024. The end of repayment of the first tranche of the loan is maintained in the 1st quarter of 2027. The repayment terms of the 2nd tranche of $100 million remain unchanged.
* Thales (+1.33% to 148.6 euros). The electronics and defense group won the Adif contract to build two branches in Spain which will be built on the Mérida-Los Rosales line, more precisely on the section between the Calamonte and Almendralejo stations. The two branches will connect to the main line, one towards Mérida and the other towards Los Rosales (Zafra). Both deviations must be controlled from the signal boxes of one of the adjacent stations and from the Centralized Traffic Control Center (CTC) of Seville Santa Justa.
* The cross (+1.2% to 25.3 euros). The group announces the sale of its Signaling segment to the industrial investment company AIAC (American Industrial Acquisition Corporation), following on from the exclusive negotiations announced on December 14 between the two companies. This operation should be effective in the 2nd quarter of 2024, subject to validation by the competent authorities. Lacroix aims to become a global leader in industrial IoT solutions and electronic equipment for critical applications by 2025. Given the evolution of the markets, the synergies between the Signaling segment and the rest of the group were becoming too limited as well. both technologically and commercially. The desire to focus its investments on the strategic markets of industrial IoT and electronic equipment led Lacroix to announce its divestment project on February 8, 2023.
* Houses of the world (+1.13% to 4.64 euros). The title remains surrounded after its annual publication. Following contact with management, Oddo BHF explains that in a difficult context, management has initiated an ‘Inspire Everyday’ transformation plan aimed at restoring business growth and improving FCF generation which should reach a cumulative amount of 100 ME over the period 2024-2026 (27.4 ME in 2023). For 2024, management has not given objectives, but the broker understands that the first part of the year should remain under pressure (turnover evolution probably identical to that observed in 2023) before recovering in the 2nd half. In this context, the analyst reiterates his ‘neutral’ opinion with a target lowered from 6.5 to 5 euros, obtained using stock market comparables.
* Airbus (+0.28% to 163.22 euros). Rumors have been multiplying in recent days. The latest comes from South Korea where Korean Air Lines is reportedly about to purchase around twenty A350 planes. The agreement could be announced as early as this week, even if it is not final and could still fall through depending on the outcome of the company’s Board of Directors meeting on March 21, say the sources from ‘Bloomberg’. Korean Air is also considering adding more A321neo single-aisle aircraft to its fleet, one of the sources said.
* AdUX (stable at 1.21 euros). The specialist in digital advertising and user experience has announced its plan to delist its shares from the regulated markets Euronext Paris and Euronext Amsterdam. The group plans their simultaneous transfer to the Euronext Growth Paris multilateral trading system. The decision to file an application for delisting from the regulated market Euronext Amsterdam (secondary listing) has been taken, given the low trading volumes on this market. This transfer to Euronext Growth should allow AdUX to simplify its operation while continuing to benefit from the attractions of the financial markets. This transfer is part of the company’s policy of reducing operating costs.
Falling values
* Waga Energy (-4.78% to 15.14 euros). The stock is under pressure despite the announcement of the commissioning of the biomethane production unit at the Bath waste storage site, in New York state. The company plans to inject 60 GWh of renewable gas per year into the distribution network of local operator Corning Natural Gas, equivalent to the consumption of around 4,000 homes. This is the first operational Wagabox in the United States.
Portzamparc estimates the contribution of this Wagabox at more than 4 ME over a full year. 14 units are under construction in France, Canada and the United States. The brokerage firm considers that the weakness of the stock since the start of the year (-38%), penalized by uncertainties over the financing of this development, does not reflect the quality of the fundamentals and prospects. Portzamparc is ‘buy’ on file.
For Bryan Garnier, this is a significant step forward for the group in the deployment of its technology in North America, particularly in the United States. The analyst is also ‘buy’ on the stock.
* Kering (-0.63% to 423.5 euros). The luxury group denies any interest in the British department store chain Selfridges. ‘The Telegraph’ reported over the weekend that the luxury group and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) were interested in taking over Austrian real estate company Signa’s stake in Selfridges. However, Kering described this information as “totally unfounded” in a statement sent to the ‘Agefi-Dow Jones’ agency. According to the British newspaper, Signa’s stake would be valued at around £2 billion.