Commando actions on the Dnipro: what the Ukrainian attacks on the Dnipro aim for

Pin-prick tactics in Ukraine?
Commandos advance across the Dnipro

By Martin Morcinek
08/09/2023, 5:40 p.m

In the war in Ukraine, the Russian military is confronted with a new threat: in the Cherson region, Ukrainian special forces are advancing across the Dnipro. Is a new combat zone emerging behind the Zaporizhia front?

In the south of Ukraine there are increasing indications of new attack plans by the Ukrainian armed forces. On the lower reaches of the Dnipro, there was apparently recent fighting on the southern bank. Ukrainian commandos are said to have managed to cross the river near the village of Kozachi Laheri. The village is located almost 30 kilometers east of the city of Cherson on the left bank of the Dnipro – about halfway towards Nowa Kakhovka.

The area in question has been under Russian control since the first weeks of the war. So far, the Kremlin units have felt comparatively safe here. The front section was long considered stable and secure: since the Russian retreat across the river last fall, the wide valley of the Dnipro has shielded the Russian occupation zone from free Ukraine.

So far, the natural conditions have seemed to favor the Russians: the Dnipro acts like a mighty barrier. The destruction of the dam at Nowa Kachowka in early June flooded the banks and made crossing the river even more difficult. Even before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the region had only three bridges over a nearly 100-kilometer stretch: the Antonivka Bridge near Kherson, the railway bridge six kilometers upstream, and the road and rail link across the Kakhovka River. Dam.

These three crossings have long been impassable: the Russians blew up the Antonwika Bridge and the rail bridge near Cherson when they left the city last autumn. And the rupture of the Kakhovka dam also tore down the foundations of the highway from Kryvyi Rih in the direction of Melitopol. The dam bridge had already been cut, as shown by satellite images, among other things. Most of the Kherson region is all but cut off from the liberated areas on the north right bank of the river.

The situation on the lower reaches of the Dnipro:

So far, the reports on the fighting near Kosatschi Laheri have been based primarily on information from the Russian military blogger scene and the meaningful denials of the occupation authorities: the town is said to be firmly in Russian hands again. The attack was repelled. Kiev is initially keeping a low profile. Satellite data show at least increased activity in the region: A NASA system for monitoring the global forest fire situation has registered a striking number of fires near the village in the past few days.

But how do Ukrainian shock troops get across the river? Since the blasts, there hasn’t been a dry path across the lower reaches of the Dnipro in the entire region. From the city of Cherson, the nearest safe road bridge over the river is only 300 kilometers northeast of the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhia.

One thing is certain: the left bank of the Dnipro is not far away for reconnaissance drones and speedboats: the river itself is less than 500 meters wide near Cherson. There are also numerous tributaries, backwaters and swampy areas. Away from the main fairway, the river valley extends several kilometers in width. The Russian positions at Oleschky, for example, are a good four kilometers from the Ukrainian side.

At Kosatschi Laheri, on the other hand, the situation is somewhat different: Here the Dnipro winds in a long river bend to the south-west towards the sea. On the southern bank, the tributary Konka follows the Dnipro. Two miles west of the outskirts of town is a broad, flat promontory, shielded further downstream by a small patch of forest and uninhabited wasteland. From the higher steep bank in the north, the entire shore zone can be fired upon from three sides.

View of the Kinburn Peninsula

The Ukrainian military closely monitors every movement of troops on the opposite bank of the Dnipro – also because Russian artillery keeps firing across the river, not sparing the city of Cherson. The Ukrainians calculate: As soon as a weak point opens up in the ranks of the Russian positions, Ukrainian commandos can swarm out and strike. Ukraine’s push at Kosachi Laheri may be part of a larger pin-prick strategy.

At the end of November, for example, there was already fighting on the Kinburn Peninsula in the Dnipro estuary, which at times led to great unrest among Russian military bloggers. The exposed location of the narrow, wooded strip of dunes on the Black Sea caused considerable problems for Russian military planning. Larger contingents of troops have been busy for months preventing the Ukrainians from further advances across the river.

View of the Antonivka bridgehead

The confusing meanders of the Dnipro with its numerous islands and marshes offer ample opportunities for such commando actions: under cover of night, Ukrainian units penetrate across the open water surfaces to attack advanced Russian positions. Large parts of the river islands near Cherson have already been withdrawn from Russian control. The Russians must move additional troops to guard the region.

At the end of June, the Ukrainians managed to expand their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro, protected by the destroyed Antonivka Bridge. The well-covered bridgehead did not allow a major breakout. Additional Dnipro tributaries lie between the access ramp and the Russian-occupied areas. However, the advance necessitated the relocation of further Russian combat units – soldiers that the Russians lack elsewhere on the front.

Overall, the forces of the occupying army have long seemed overstretched. Apparently there are not enough troops to cover the entire river bank and prevent the Ukrainians from carrying out such pinprick attacks. And since the dam burst, another open flank has emerged along the empty Kakhovka reservoir, where Ukrainian commando actions are threatening.

There are signs that the Russian side has recognized the extent of the problem: Putin’s generals had the suspected Ukrainian positions at the Antonivka Bridge shelled with heavy and very heavy calibers. Glide bombs, incendiary ammunition and rockets fell on the settlements and areas along the banks of the Dnipro: the massive shelling is apparently intended to cover Russian gaps on the ground. It was recently unclear whether Ukrainian soldiers were still in the areas where they were fired upon. They may have given way long ago or retreated across the river.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin cannot ignore the landings on the Dnipro: close to Kozachi Laheri, an important Russian supply route runs close to the bank with the M-14 trunk road. If Ukrainian commandos establish themselves in the region, there is a risk of raids on the Russian lines of communication in the hinterland.

It would be even more dangerous for the occupying army if control of the river bank were lost and the area was no longer within the direct range of Russian artillery, because then the Ukrainian armed forces would have a more realistic chance of launching a major landing operation on the lower reaches of the Dnipro.