Confidence in absent subscribers

Investors are lost. The major central banks are tightening their monetary policy with a vengeance, but, at the same time, economic indicators are deteriorating, whether in Europe, the United States or China. In Ukraine, the war is still raging and inflation continues to rise all over the world. This combination of negative elements should be reflected in consumer confidence. In France, the index ofInsee, which will be unveiled before the market, should fall by 2 points, to 84 in June, weighed down, moreover, by the political uncertainty born of the last legislative elections. Following the same trend, the index GfK German should continue to sink into negative territory at -27.3 for July, after -26 in June. Across the Atlantic, the indicator of Conference Board is expected to fall to 100 in June from 106.4 in May.

Too much inventory

Depressed, the current context should also result in the announcement of a US goods trade balance still degraded. The deficit is expected to hit $105.4 billion in May. “ For the first time since early 2020, some companies are now saying they have too much inventory relative to their sales, note analysts from Oddo BHF. The inventory adjustment should weigh on imports, as well as the slowdown in household spending on goods. In the United States, the external deficit only really shrinks during a recession. On the US real estate front, house prices are not expected to slow down for now, but the situation does not appear to be sustainable given the rise in interest rates and the risk of recession in the country. Prices are expected up 1.6% month on month (FHFA index) and 21.2% over one year (CaseShiller index).