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Seen from the outside, especially from neutral Switzerland, the Finnish and Swedish desire for NATO membership appears quite spectacular. A discussion at the US think tank Cepa showed how relaxed Helsinki and Stockholm are in dealing with sharp protests from the Kremlin.
Finland made the start, says its ambassador in Washington, Mikko Hautala. The decisive factor was the demand made by Russian President Vladimir Putin last December that there should never be another NATO expansion. “It was clear in Helsinki that if Putin prevailed, Finland would become a second-rate country. It would no longer be sovereign in its decisions,” says Hautala.
Within weeks, popular support for NATO membership rose from just over 20 to around 80 percent. Sweden also joined very quickly, according to its ambassador to the USA, Karin Olofsdotter.
The Nordic change of position is understandable, says Kurt Volker, former NATO ambassador and later Ukraine special envoy of the USA: “Russia attacked Georgia, Ukraine twice, it occupies part of Moldova. This shows that non-NATO members are threatened. Those who belong to the alliance have so far remained unmolested. If Moscow now mimics surprise and speaks of a Finnish and Swedish provocation, then that is history falsification. » Russia turned away from the West, not the other way around.
Russia threatens non-NATO members. Those who belong to the alliance have so far remained unmolested.
For the Finns and Swedes, joining NATO is “not a big leap, just another step,” says Finnish Ambassador Hautala: “We’ve been moving towards NATO for years.” And Karin Olofsdotter: “Both countries not only demand security from NATO, but also contribute to more security for all of Europe.” A look at the map shows: “Sweden and Finland are two large pieces of the puzzle that NATO has been missing.”
Legend:
Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto speaking at the Swedish Parliament in Stockholm after being invited by the Swedish King.
key stone
Rapid accession is expected in both Nordic capitals. Kurt Volker is convinced that the USA, where ratifications in Congress often take a long time, will be among the first to agree this time.
Nordic serenity
And nobody seriously wants to believe that NATO member Turkey will ultimately block the alliance’s entry. “Until recently, we also heard very positive signals from Ankara,” say Hautala and Olofsdotter in unison. Now one is a bit surprised that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shoots across – with arguments that have nothing to do with NATO. But the resistance can be eliminated.
One is just as certain that Russia, despite the verbal bluster, will ultimately hold back. “Moscow has had to expect Sweden and Finland to join NATO for a long time. Although the new situation is annoying for Russia, it does not pose an existential threat. The Kremlin leadership said so themselves,” says Hautala. Especially since no stationing of large NATO troop contingents is planned in the two future new members.
The Nordic composure is remarkable in the face of an alliance entry that has been interpreted elsewhere as a startling historical turnaround.