Friday March 26th 2021
Corona: lockdown or loosening
Germany without a plan – what’s next?
From Frauke Niemeyer
Great Britain loosens. Poland and Sweden are on the rise. What is Germany doing? After the failed federal-state round, there is no longer any plan to stop the rapid increase in incidence. That can be extremely dangerous.
A screwed up federal-state round on Monday, a U-turn and apology on Wednesday, more than 22,000 new corona infections on Thursday. Germany is spared the much-criticized “Easter rest”, but one crucial question is now completely open: If not this strategy, which one instead? How should things go on in Germany?
Another switch between the Chancellor and the country leaders is currently not planned until mid-April. Until then, there should be no joint effort at the federal level to stand up to B.1.1.7, the now prevalent corona mutant. But: Everyone fights for himself and looks for his own way.
The state of Lower Saxony – currently with a seven-day incidence value of 100 – announced on Thursday that it will also include curfews in its repertoire. In counties and large cities where the incidence rises above 100, it should be possible in the future to impose a curfew. From an incidence of 150, it should become mandatory at night. The latter would currently only affect the district of Cloppenburg with an incidence of 225.
Early action – worked out fine
Neighbor Hamburg pulled the Corona emergency brake five days ago. It thus strictly follows the federal-state ruling from the beginning of March: In the event of incidences over 100 on three consecutive days, the relaxations already granted will be withdrawn. “We are dealing with a very contagious virus variant,” said First Mayor Peter Tschentscher. We have had very good experiences with acting early. During the day, Hamburg’s incidence value was 98 again. But the measures remain in place for the time being.
A completely different picture emerges in Saarland, for which Prime Minister Tobias Hans has announced extensive easing after Easter – flanked by a close-knit test regime. Outdoor restaurants, fitness studios and cinemas should then reopen, on the streets of Saarbrücken you could soon feel like you are in Tel Aviv – the state government wants to allow groups of up to ten people, “always in combination with tests,” as the regional chief emphasizes.
The easing is on the one hand risky, on the other hand it could mean that test options – after all, the second pillar of the German anti-corona strategy alongside vaccinations – are actually used. So far, this has rarely been the case, especially in rural regions of Germany, because the citizens simply lack the incentive to undergo the test procedure. If you are not allowed to do anything anyway, why?
The Saarland model can be understood as a kind of field research, and in fact, with a seven-day incidence of 70, the state is currently the most likely to dare to take such a step. Only Schleswig-Holstein is even lower with an incidence value of just under 60. But other regions in Germany also want to gradually relax.
Opening model at incidence 200?
The small Saxon Augustusburg with its 4500 inhabitants is planning similar steps as the Saarland – only with a three times higher incidence value. It is currently over 200, but the state government gave the go-ahead to start easing from April 1st. If the test result is negative, you can visit shops, restaurants or sports clubs participating in the model test for three days. In other federal states, too, individual municipalities are planning model tests with test regimes and openings.
The strategies of Tübingen or Rostock are copied in Germany, but the pioneers are sometimes critical. Steffen Bockhahn, Senator for Health in the Hanseatic City, believes the risk of a relaxation course is simply too great if the incidence is high. “When you talk about openings yourself, it is difficult to explain to others why they shouldn’t. But with an incidence of 200 I would not tend to open outdoor restaurants,” says Bockhahn ntv.de.
In the view of the Senator, not only good test management is indispensable for relaxation, but also consistent control – in quarantine, in trade, with regard to the mask requirement in public spaces. “We make sure that the rules not only exist,” says Bockhahn, “but that they are also adhered to”.
The federal capital is apparently looking for its own way after the failed round on Monday. The number of infections is rising sharply in the districts, Berlin already exceeded the 100 wave three days ago. Nevertheless, the Governing Mayor Michael Müller is not taking back the opening steps that were implemented two weeks ago for the time being. There are also no restrictions at schools and daycare centers. From his point of view, it is not a viable option “to turn back everything that we have fought for in the last few days and weeks in terms of opportunities and freedom,” says Müller. By vaccinating and testing one no longer only has to react with restrictions.
However, the data generated by the Neukölln health department in Berlin from the positive test results are alarming. While the increase in the number of day care and school children is rather slight, the seven-day incidence among Neukölln residents between the ages of 30 and 39 has tripled within a week. “This is fast and not the end of the flagpole,” says head of office Nicolai Savaskan ntv.de. He fears a high number of unreported cases. The chief executive sees working life as critical for the spread of the virus. “It’s the inconspicuous places – break rooms, car pools – where the mutant spreads out.”
Vaccinate with high numbers of cases – extremely dangerous
After the failed attempt to find a common nationwide line, each federal state is currently tinkering its own corona strategy. Epidemiologist Timo Ulrichs sees a great danger here. “A trend reversal cannot be achieved without a nationwide uniform lockdown,” says the expert. Because without strict measures across the country, the number of cases would continue to rise. From Ulrichs’ point of view, a highly dangerous development, precisely because the vaccination campaign is set to pick up speed so significantly soon. “If you go to mass vaccinations with a high number of cases, you put the virus under great pressure. It could escape from this pressure by changing massively – creating so-called ‘escape’ mutations – especially in immunocompromised people. And one or even more of them could be resistant to the vaccine. “
If that happened, then that one actually sharp sword against the coronavirus would – at least temporarily – become blunt. Even if the development of a new vaccine didn’t have to start from scratch – a resistant mutant would set the fight against the virus back months. And in the meantime, the last resort for protection would be the hated lockdown again.
.