The number of contaminations is still very high in France. When can we expect to reach the peak?
Contaminations are a very imprecise indicator because only people who want to be tested are listed, and it is estimated that we have, in reality, twice as many cases. On the other hand, two other indicators are important: first, hospitalizations, which continue to rise, with more than 32,000 patients. Then resuscitation, where there has been a decrease in the number of people for several days. When will the peak take place? We will know in the next fortnight because there is always a lag between the peak of contamination and those of hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care.
This Wednesday, then February 16, most restrictions will be lifted for those vaccinated. Is the timing right?
Three measures are lifted this Wednesday, and this should have an impact on the circulation of the virus which does not risk, a priori, leading to unexpected events. First there is the removal of the mask outdoors, and we know that the majority of contamination occurs in closed and poorly ventilated spaces. Then, we have the obligation to telecommute for three to four days which jumps. Finally, the gauges are removed but there is still the vaccination pass. Its interest is to have only vaccinated people in the place, so the number of unprotected people is reduced. Compared to resuscitation, the risk of lifting these measures is therefore contained.
With a more contagious but less serious Omicron variant, is another form of epidemic hitting France?
The high transmissibility of Omicron and the fact that we have a lot of infected people mean that we will gradually build up overall immunity that is greater than simple vaccine immunity, which makes it possible to slow down the virus. Between the vaccinated and the infected, estimated to be between ten and twelve million since the beginning of January in France, we are on the right track. So indeed, we are seeing a change in the face of the epidemic. But there is still a part of the population not yet well vaccinated, that of children from 5 to 11 years old. There, there is a significant risk of circulation of the virus. What is needed is not to rest on the laurels of vaccination and to continue trying to vaccinate as many people as possible, especially children.
Philippe Amouyel.
cc ALEXANDRE CAFFIAUX/Wikimedia
Professor Karine Lacombe declared that it was necessary to “stop testing, isolating and tracing”, precisely because the “face of the epidemic” has changed. Do you agree ?
The “test, trace, isolate” is only really effective if you have less than 10,000 contaminations per day. On the other hand, the test is interesting because it still makes it possible to get people who test positive out of the game, who will isolate themselves, therefore limiting the circulation of the virus.
In England, Denmark or Catalonia, the health pass is no longer applied. The leaders believe that the possibility of being contaminated, even by being vaccinated, makes this device inoperative. What do you think ?
The problem is not to be infected, or to transmit the virus, but to transmit it to someone who is not vaccinated or immunocompromised. We now realize that when you are vaccinated, it very significantly reduces transmission compared to a non-vaccinated person, and it also reduces the risk of infection. So to remove the pass, I think we have to wait until we return to contamination thresholds low enough to avoid taking the risk of infecting a person at risk.
How do you see the next few months?