Covid-19: towards an epidemic peak in mid-January?

The Omicron wave arrived like a tidal wave in France. But will she peak faster than expected? This is what epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet suggests in Le Journal du Dimanche. He said he was confident that “in the long term”, this virus “will join other seasonal coronaviruses”. “The peak in the number of cases should peak in mid-January; the hospital peak could take place a week later (…) Île-de-France will be the first affected,” said this member of the Scientific Council, then that the Omicron variant is now the majority in France. In “a hospital already severely affected by 22 months of health crisis”, he said to expect “a huge logistical and organizational challenge”.

The epidemiologist, however, indicated that “the increased use of teleworking will play an important role” in reducing the level of this peak, as well as “the aeration or ventilation efforts” of classes and canteens. He advocated stopping gym classes and indoor choirs for the time being. The peak will be “of limited duration” because patients with this variant have a lower need for mechanical ventilation and stay in hospital for less, according to Fontanet. Also in an interview with the JDD, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran clarified that according to British data, “there are three times fewer severe forms of the disease with Omicron than with Delta.

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The very effective vaccine

Arnaud Fontanet recalled that protection against severe forms “is very well preserved” with the vaccine, “of the order of 80-90% after a booster dose”. “Ultimately, there is hope” and “Sars-CoV-2 will join other human seasonal coronaviruses which give us colds and tonsillitis every winter,” he said. “We are not there yet. We can expect that new variants will emerge, but as our immunity strengthens over time, either through natural infection or with booster doses of the vaccine, their ability to give severe forms will decrease, ”he said.

He also assured that 2022 would bring new control tools, such as vaccines which will be administered intranasally and the imminent arrival of the antiviral Paxlovid which will allow the treatment of people at risk of serious forms. “The more time passes, the less painful the waves will be,” said the epidemiologist. Even Olivier Véran’s optimistic but cautious tone: “this fifth wave may be the last,” he said, indicating that Omicron is so contagious that it “will lead to heightened immunity” in the world.

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