Things have not been going well between Germany and France for a long time when it comes to supporting Ukraine. While Olaf Scholz allows himself to be portrayed as the “Chancellor of Peace”, Emmanuel Macron has undergone a completely different transformation.
Before today’s summit of the so-called Weimar Triangle of Germany, France and Poland, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron meet in the Chancellery. There is a lot to discuss, as things have been flying between Berlin and Paris for weeks, albeit in a diplomatic disguise.
Officially, both the French and German governments deny that there is a rift between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. “There is no Franco-German conflict, we agree on 80 percent of the issues,” French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné told the newspaper Le Monde at the beginning of March.
Scholz was even more euphoric about his relationship with “Emmanuel”. On Wednesday he was asked about his relationship with Macron in the Bundestag. CDU foreign policy expert Jürgen Hardt said that French presidents and chancellors always avoided contradicting each other in public. “Unfortunately, things have changed in the last few months,” noted Hardt, asking whether this was a slip-up or a change in strategy. Scholz replied that he “didn’t fully understand the question.” The cooperation between Germany and France is very intensive. “And Emmanuel and I will meet again in Berlin on Friday. This is perhaps an expression of the fact that everything you have assumed here is not true at all.”
Two hours for Scholz and Macron
However, it is true, which is why his meeting with Macron today is a veritable crisis meeting. Scholz will receive the President at 12 p.m., followed later by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at 2 p.m. In the afternoon the three of them will appear together in front of the press. So two hours for Scholz and Macron to at least agree on a common language rule.
This is long overdue, because for months there have been a number of points of contention between the two very different politicians – especially when it comes to Ukraine. At the last meeting in Paris, the rift was made public. So Macron thought aloud that sending ground troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out. What may have been just a strategic consideration was dismissed by Scholz as if the deployment of NATO troops was imminent.
Macron, in turn, barely veiled his criticism of Germany’s refusal to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, which the federal government regularly countered by pointing out that France delivers much less than Germany. In general, people in the federal government are irritated by Macron, who, as it is sometimes said, talks more than he does. The reverse also applies: not only is the Chancellor’s categorical Taurus no met with incomprehension in France, you also notice therethat Scholz has been portraying himself as a “peace chancellor” by his SPD for some time now.
“Sleeping bags and helmets”
What also caused displeasure in Paris was that Scholz spoke publicly about the fact that Great Britain and France were involved in the use of their Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles – an open secret that, as the head of government of a NATO state, is better left unmentioned. Former British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace rumbled in the British “Standard” that Scholz had shown with his behavior that he was “the wrong man in the wrong place at the wrong time.”
There were no such reactions from France. Instead, other sentences were uttered that made it clear what Macron thinks of the Chancellor. At the meeting in Paris, the French president blasphemed those “who today say ‘never, never’.” These are often the same people who said “never tanks, never airplanes, never medium-range missiles” two years ago. Without mentioning countries or politicians by name, Macron added: “I remind you that some in this group have said they will offer sleeping bags and helmets.” Scholz sat next to him.
Shortly before his departure to Berlin, Macron made a statement TV interview, in which he said what was needed was “determination, will and courage” and that the use of ground troops was also an option. After a analysis from the magazine “Le Figaro”, this interview shows the radical change in Macron’s attitude towards Russia. At the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, Macron said that Russia should not be humiliated.
That’s not how strategic ambiguity works
Today, Macron sounds completely different: “The security of Europe and the French is at stake in Ukraine,” he said in the television interview. “If Russia wins, the lives of the French will change and Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero. Who can imagine that Vladimir Putin there [in der Ukraine] stops?” Until then, Scholz could certainly go along, but not with the sentence that no red lines should be set. “If Russia continues its escalation, if the situation worsens, we have to be ready and we will be ready,” said Macron “We will be ready to make the necessary decisions so that Russia never wins.”
While SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich calls for prudence in the Bundestag and Scholz emphasizes that prudence is “not something that can be qualified as weakness”, Macron says that one should not be “weak” in order to achieve peace in Ukraine. You probably don’t offend either side if you assume that it’s a mix of beliefs and domestic political considerations. The political scientist Liana Fix accused both of themto play the lead in Europe.
From the French president’s point of view, a change of strategy is obviously necessary: ”There is an escalation on the part of Russia and we have to say that we are ready to react,” he told the channels TF1 and France 2. The security expert Carlo Masala had already made the first move after Macron on it pointed out, such an approach is strategic ambiguity: “Leave the opponent unclear about what you are willing to do” instead of telling him “what you definitely won’t do.” However, strategic ambiguity against Russia only works if the allies appear united. That is clearly not the case so far.