Desert city is growing too slowly: Saudis are evaporating their “Vision 2030”.

The mammoth construction project “The Line” is apparently being curtailed significantly. The city in the desert of Saudi Arabia and a showcase project for “Vision 2030” is growing too slowly. According to Bloomberg, only a fifth of the originally planned 1.5 million people will live here by 2030.

A dead straight city, 170 kilometers long, through the desert to the Red Sea, surrounded by a 500 meter high mirrored wall, overlaid by a 200 meter wide, green roof. These are the key details of the gigantic planned city “The Line”. It is the most ambitious project of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “Vision 2030”. The first phase of the huge construction project should be completed at the beginning of the next decade and will provide homes for 1.5 million people. In the future, 9 million people should live in the dead-straight city.

That was the plan when the project was first presented to the public at the beginning of 2021. Construction work began just a few months later. Saudi Arabia was serious about the seemingly crazy project – or so it seemed. It now looks as if the rich oil kingdom has overreached itself with its big plans. Like that Business portal “Bloomberg” citing anonymous sources, the construction project is to be significantly scaled down: instead of 1.5 million inhabitants, fewer than 300,000 people are expected in “The Line” when it starts in the 1930s, only a fifth of the original size.

For the Saudi Arabia expert Sebastian Sons from the Carpo research institute If the report turns out to be true, that wouldn’t be a surprise. “It’s not that unusual in Saudi projects that you start with very big, ambitious goals and then adapt the whole thing to reality.” Crown Prince bin Salman wanted to attract attention and thereby increase the attractiveness of Saudi Arabia as a business location. “In the last few months I have spoken to some people in Saudi Arabia who said: ‘Even if only 20 or 30 percent of the projects are realized, this is a milestone in the development of our country,'” Sons reports on ntv -Podcast “Learned something again”.

The Middle East expert is convinced that a significant reduction in “The Line” would not come as a big surprise to many Saudis. “I also think that most people don’t really care.”

Silicon Valley of the Middle East?

It was clear from the outset that “The Line” would be completed in individual construction phases. However, the Saudis clearly underestimated the size and duration of the individual project phases. Therefore, according to the updated plans for 2030, only the first 2.4 of the planned 170 kilometers will be finished – “The Line” will simply grow too slowly in the coming years, to accommodate 1.5 million people there in 6 years. According to Bloomberg, at least one of the construction companies involved has already started laying off construction workers.

Representatives of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, which is financing the giant project, declined to comment. Representatives of the construction project also declined to comment. Only Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadan let it be known last December that “Vision 2030” could not be realized by 2030. “A longer period of time is needed to build factories and develop sufficient human resources,” al-Jadan commented.

“The Line” is embedded in the mammoth “Neom” project. These include several construction projects, in addition to the straight city, the port and industrial site “Oxagon” as well as two luxury holiday resorts, “Sindalah” in the sea and “Trojena” in the mountains. The Asian Winter Games are to be held here in 2029. Saudi Arabia has already received the commitment from the Olympic Council of Asia.

“‘Neom’ is supposed to become a kind of Silicon Valley in the Middle East at some point. In this way, brilliant minds are to be attracted who will have opportunities there that they no longer have in Europe or the USA,” says Sons, describing the ambitious plans of Saudi Arabia. Arabia. With “Neom” a “state within a state” could be created where the strict laws of the ultra-conservative Islamic kingdom could be partially repealed and even alcohol could be permitted.

“Gold rush mood” among Western companies

Many Western companies are also involved in the huge settlement project, and German companies are also involved. A Thyssen Krupp subsidiary is helping to build a green hydrogen factory. The Munich-based Bauer AG drives large bored piles into the desert sand. Volocopter from Baden-Württemberg wants to provide air taxis. Siemens hopes to win the contract to build high-speed trains and metros. Sebastian Sons speaks of a “gold rush atmosphere”. Architects and engineers could let off steam and have “other options than in rigid and bureaucratized Europe.”

At the same time, there is also some criticism of the project. Environmental activists criticize the evictions of desert tribes from their villages, the disruption of the flight paths of desert birds and the enormous CO2 emissions of the construction project. Human rights activists complain about inadequate conditions for construction workers, such as those at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

However, the Saudi royal family does not want to be deterred by this and insists on building a green city in the desert, CO2-neutral, without cars, and the energy supply should be guaranteed entirely by wind power and solar systems. Saudi Arabia wants to prepare for the post-oil era with “Vision 2030”.

Significantly less oil revenue

But is there enough money for the ambitious plans? So far, finances have never seemed to be an obstacle for Saudi Arabia – the sovereign wealth fund is jam-packed with $600 billion. By 2030, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) is expected to grow to two trillion dollars. However, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Saudi Arabia had to take out loans and wants to sell shares in the state oil company Saudi Aramco. This made almost 25 percent less profit last year than in 2022.

The core message: Even in the desert kingdom, money is no longer so easy these days. “Bloomberg” also reports that the sovereign wealth fund has not yet approved “Neom’s” budget for the current year. In total, the construction project is expected to cost $1.5 trillion; the cost of “The Line” alone is estimated to be up to $1 trillion. The reports are “not an alarm signal, but not completely insignificant either,” Sons analyzes in the podcast. “Saudi Arabia is looking closely at how the revenue situation will develop in the future. At the moment things are still looking relatively good because of the oil, but one must not forget that in the medium term the Gaza war and the attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea will affect the revenue situation. ”

“Neom” is a “project with many imponderables,” analyzes Sons. There is definitely an “awareness of the problem” in Saudi Arabia. For this reason, the Middle East scientist believes it is possible that the royal family will actually significantly scale back their plans – at least for “The Line”. Because it has been recognized that, in addition to the large lighthouse projects, “the holistic development of the country” must be taken into account. Sons is convinced that Riyadh is likely to justify the scaled-down plans in one way or another.

In the long term, Saudi Arabia wants to stick to its big plans despite the delays, according to the “Bloomberg” report. It just looks like it’s taking a lot longer than planned. “The Line” should be completely finished in 2045 and accommodate 9 million people over 170 kilometers. This would mean that “Vision 2030” has finally been implemented – but whether this will be the last delay is more questionable than ever.