The global economic recovery, which is accompanied by an increase in international trade, will not have been enough to work a miracle. France’s trade deficit worsened slightly in the first half of 2021, according to data released on Friday August 6 by the Directorate General of Customs. It reached 34.8 billion euros over the first six months of the year, against 32.6 billion in the second half of 2020.
With 240.2 billion goods sold on foreign markets (+ 18.4% compared to the first half of 2020), exports have started to rise again and in certain sectors are catching up to their pre-crisis level. But imports, driven by the dynamism of consumption in France and the needs of industry, are doing just as well. They reached 275 billion euros, up 16.9%. Especially since the increase in energy prices increased the final bill.
While corporate consumption and investment picked up again in the first half of the year, foreign trade would therefore be the only component of gross domestic product to weigh negatively, in the order of 0.2 point, on growth in 2021. , according to INSEE projections. This result, not surprisingly, comes after a disastrous 2020. The Covid-19 crisis has plunged French exports: planes and transport equipment, usually at the head of our sales, remained in the factories.
Masks and gowns
Even today, aeronautical exports, which represent around a tenth of exports, are at half their pre-crisis level. The fall in activity in the country has of course mechanically reduced imports, but to a lesser extent. Massive purchases of masks, gowns and other materials weighed in the balance. At the end of 2020, the trade deficit had reached 65.2 billion euros over the year, a record since 2012.
Will the second half of 2021 and the economic recovery, which should allow us to achieve some 6% growth, turn the tide? In a context of recovery in consumption, rising prices of raw materials and energy, there is little chance that imports will decline. The opposite would also be worrying, signaling a drop in household consumption. But exports should also continue to grow.
You have 54.36% of this article to read. The rest is for subscribers only.