War, climate crisis, fears of recession: The year that is just ending is really not for positive minds. But hidden behind the news of the day, the world has gotten a little bit better again.
Liberalism needs belief in a better future.
Looking back, one can say it: 2022 was a year to forget. Rarely has so much bad news accumulated in twelve months (and we haven’t forgotten the first year of the pandemic, 2020). In the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, more than 200,000 soldiers and civilians were killed or wounded and the Ukrainian economy was set back by years to decades.
The trade war between the USA and China has intensified and raises fears of an end to globalization. And high inflation is forcing almost all major central banks to raise interest rates. This curbs economic growth and makes for an almost uniquely bad stock market year: both bonds and stocks plunged in 2022. And yes: many economists expect a recession for 2023, and climate change will continue unabated. The 1.5 degree target is becoming increasingly distant, while Germany has to fire up old coal-fired power plants to get through the winter.
No wonder doomsday prophets like the last generation or the apologists of Russia are popular. But level-headed minds must counter this with facts and at least a pinch of optimism. Liberalism needs belief in a better future. It is the foundation of the local social and economic system: Why should you make provisions for the future – by saving and investing as an individual or as a society – when everything will soon go down the drain anyway?
The nice thing is that the liberals not only have hope on their side, but also the facts. Progress continued even in the annus horribilis of 2022, in almost every sector and around the world: the infant mortality rate is 2022 according to current UN estimates again decreased by more than 2 percent. As in almost all previous years and in spite of all wars and epidemics. Out of 1000 babies, 27.5 die before their first birthday. Of course it shouldn’t be a single one. However, in 1999 twice as many died. And in 2040 it will be even less.
Climate pessimism is also misplaced. Under the impact of the Ukraine war, many countries, above all the Europeans, have accelerated the expansion of renewable energies. The installed capacity of all solar systems in the EU increased by 25 percent in 2022. This will make Europe a bit greener and a bit more independent of Russia – in just a few years the continent will reap the full dividends from investments in 2022 in terms of climate and security policy.
In Asia and America, too, energy from renewable sources is becoming cheaper and more competitive. In countries like Vietnam or India, the conversion of electricity generation to renewable sources is proceeding at a spectacular pace, something that the West likes to forget.
The same applies here: A bit of optimism is enough, there is no need for naivety. The climate policy challenges remain great. Today’s power transmission grids and storage technologies are nowhere near enough to get the most out of all that new solar power. And the world must, despite the clean electricity, adapt to those climate changes that are already inevitable.
The fact that bad news can also seed progress is best shown in economic policy: Higher interest rates mean that investments are being made more carefully around the world again. Shady crypto exchanges are disappearing, solid companies remain and will increase everyone’s prosperity in the long run. In the long term, a lot can be expected from the entrepreneurs who survived the year 2022 with their companies.
The fact that people tend to be pessimistic is in itself nothing reprehensible and can also be easily explained: in everyday life, the cautious usually fare better than the carefree. But it’s important every now and then – and why not at Christmas time? – to pause, step back and look at the big lines. Mankind is still on the way to a better future. Despite 2022 – or a little bit because of 2022.