So far, Omikron is considered to be the mildest corona variant. Although it is significantly more contagious than Delta, practically no one ends up in intensive care because of it.
The German virologist Christian Drosten (49) dares to doubt whether that will remain the case. In an interview with Deutschlandfunk, he says it is possible that a recombination of delta and omicron will occur in the future. It would be a new virus that, on the one hand, “carries the spike protein of the omicron virus to continue enjoying this immune advantage, but has the rest of the delta virus genome.” So that would mean that this mutant combines the strongest properties from both variants – a kind of “Deltakron” variant.
Drosten also thinks it is not unlikely that Omikron will become less mild all by itself. The variant could develop a so-called serotype. On the one hand, this can be used to trick the immune system, but the transmission protection can also be bypassed.
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Stronger pathogenic effect dangerous for the unvaccinated
For this reason, the virologist considers it a fallacy and dangerous to believe that one could now become infected with omicron practically carelessly, have a mild course and then be immune. He emphasizes: “It is far from certain that the omicron virus will remain in this somewhat mitigated state as it is now. It’s a very shaky situation at the moment.”
In his opinion, it could be that within a few weeks there would suddenly be an omicron variant that “again brings with it a stronger pathogenic effect. Those who are not vaccinated would then have no immune protection against this effect. You couldn’t vaccinate against that so quickly either.”
Infection does not confer long-term immunity
In such a case, a natural infection would be of little use. Because the virus does not reliably provide protective immunity in the natural infection for a long time, says Drosten. To achieve one, people would have to go through multiple infections with each of these variants. However, that could take years. The German therefore considers a fourth vaccination adapted to Omicron to be useful. Such a substance can be expected from spring.
Drosten emphasizes that in a society like Germany, where the population is rather old, basic immunity can initially only be acquired through a “wide vaccination” – if you don’t want to risk a lot of deaths. With complete vaccination immunity, Drosten means three vaccinations. An infection by the virus could then also contribute to “maintaining this immunity at the population level”.
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Disease and transmission protection
So when will the pandemic end? Drosten says that in addition to disease protection in the population, transmission protection is also needed. The best way to protect against disease is through vaccination. For protection against transmission, the immunity would have to be elicited directly on the mucosa.
One way to achieve this is through infection. “That means we need vaccination immunity, which protects us against the disease, then infection with the virus, which then also gives us protection against transmission for society as a whole, so that the immunity is not just in the blood in the form of antibodies and immune cells , but also on the mucous membrane, because there is an own immunity with own local immune cells, which make a much better defense barrier.»
The other way to protect against transmission would be adapted vaccines, which would be administered via a nasal spray, for example. In this way, weakened corona viruses could generate immunity directly on the mucous membrane without having to become infected. Science is working flat out on the development. (man)
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