Eastern partners disappointed
Ukraine attitude costs Germany confidence
By Thomas Dudek
02/01/2022, 8:10 p.m
The German government’s policy in the current Ukraine crisis is causing distrust among the eastern EU and NATO partners. In the future, they might prefer to rely on the USA for security policy rather than on their European partners.
Germany dominates the headlines in Poland this week. Not unusual for a government that is not exactly friendly towards Germany. This time, however, it is not Polish demands for reparations for the destruction of World War II that dominate the reports, but the Russian troop deployment on the border with Ukraine. “Whose side are the Germans on?” asks the conservative News magazine “Wprost” on the cover of its current issue. The PiS-related weekly magazine “Sieci” has the same headline from the “German Treason”.
The headlines reflect the Polish mood on German politics in the current Ukraine crisis and show how much trust Germany is losing with its eastern neighbor. “I do not expect Germany to engage in this conflict if that is the decision of the new federal government. In my opinion, the Germans are making such a big mistake. But if they refuse to help Ukraine, then I ask them to say so directly,” he said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in an interview with the Spanish newspaper “El Mundo” published on Saturday.
However, critical tones are not only to be heard from the ruling national conservatives. Radosław Sikorski, former foreign minister and current MEP of the opposition citizens’ coalition, has emphasized several times in recent days that the new federal government is for him a disappointment” may be.
Sikorski is the best proof of how much trust Germany has gambled away in recent weeks, even among those who see Berlin more as a partner. As late as 2011, the then chief diplomat in Poland said in a speech in Berlin about Europe: “More than German power, I fear German inaction.” Today he feels confirmed and is therefore not an isolated case. The comments in Prague and the capitals of the Baltic States do not sound any better at the moment.
Pipeline as leverage against neighbors
Which does not mean that the relationship between the East Central European countries and Germany has been harmonious in recent years. The controversial Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline has been met with a lack of understanding and criticism in the region for years, which has been largely ignored by German politicians. Not only was there concern that the Kremlin would use the proceeds for military purposes or use energy supplies through the pipeline as a means of exerting political pressure on its neighbors. It was also feared that the Kremlin could primarily influence German politics in this way.
Fears that are now being confirmed by these countries. And the daily reports from Germany take care of that. It doesn’t matter whether the statement made by SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert that “conflicts shouldn’t be talked about in order to bury projects that have always been a thorn in one’s side” was also met with incomprehension between Warsaw and Tallinn , such as the federal government’s veto against Estonia, which wanted to deliver howitzers from old NVA stocks to the Ukraine. Germany’s announcement that it would be supplying 5,000 protective helmets to Ukraine therefore seemed like a bad joke to many East Central Europeans.
However, the distrust does not only apply to the new traffic light coalition. The demands of the new CDU chairman Friedrich Merz, according to which possible sanctions against Russia should not affect the international bank payment system Swift, have been registered by the eastern partners, as has the warnings of the Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder about sanctions against Nord Stream 2. Has not forgotten In East-Central Europe it is also clear that it was the federal government of CDU Chancellor Merkel who, despite all criticism, approved the construction of Nord Stream 2 shortly after the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the outbreak of war in eastern Ukraine.
Not taken seriously by Berlin
But behind the distrust that has now been openly shown is more than just disappointment about the German government’s policy in the Ukraine conflict, which has also been criticized in Germany. On the one hand, Berlin feels that its own security interests are not being taken seriously. And the states of East-Central Europe not only see the deployment of more than 100,000 Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine as a danger, but also the demands made by Russia on the USA and NATO in December, in which the Kremlin said, among other things, the withdrawal of NATO troops from these eastern member states of the alliance.
Then there is the history of the countries. Although the federal government justifies its current policy with Germany’s historical responsibility, there is a feeling between Warsaw and Tallinn that this historical responsibility only applies to Russia. For example, the fact that the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia lost their independence for five decades in 1940 as a result of the Hitler-Stalin Pact does not seem to play a role in German politics in the opinion of East Central Europeans.
The economic aspect also plays an important role in the distrust. Although Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia together have only 70 million inhabitants, they are six times the export customer for Germany than Russia, a country with 140 million. 2020 Germany sold according to the Federal Statistics Office Goods worth almost 150 billion euros to East Central Europe. After Russia, it was only products worth 23 billion euros. In addition, four countries in the region, Slovakia and the Baltic States, are members of the euro zone. It is an economic importance of the region for Germany, which in the opinion of the East-Central Europeans is not appreciated by the regular German references to the trading partner Russia.
The growing distrust of the eastern EU and NATO partners could have far-reaching long-term consequences for the German government’s European policy and the EU in general. The vision of a federal European Union emphasized in the coalition agreement, which is already met with little approval in Poland, for example, may be very ambitious. However, given the federal government’s current Ostpolitik, it is likely to make the eastern EU partners shake their heads. For them, the current statements from Germany are just further proof that they can rely more on the USA than on their EU partner Germany when it comes to security policy issues.