Economists do the math
A shortage of skilled workers is costing Germany billions
May 12, 2024, 8:46 a.m
A study shows how much money German companies are missing out on due to the shortage of skilled workers. Accordingly, the performance of the economy could be significantly increased – if companies could cover their needs. Economists also have ideas about what would be necessary for this.
According to a study, if German companies could cover their skilled workers needs, they would be able to generate an additional 49 billion euros this year. This calculation comes from a paper by two economists from the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne. If the current need for around 573,000 qualified workers were met, the so-called production potential could be 1.1 percent higher in the current year. By 2027, the added value could be 74 billion euros.
Unlike the actual production result, the production potential is an estimate of the production that would be possible under full load. To determine the skilled worker gap, the IW scientists work with projections. They also calculate very conservatively, as they assume that every suitably qualified unemployed person in Germany will find a job – which is not the case in reality. “Due to the assumptions made in the calculation, the actual costs of the shortage of skilled workers are likely to be significantly higher,” write the authors, who also make cautious calculations elsewhere. In any case, the gap has grown significantly since 2010.
According to the IW experts, the most important lever for reducing the shortage of skilled workers is more qualified immigration. The revised Skilled Immigration Act has created new opportunities here. In order to get more women into work, more childcare options would make sense, as would changes in the taxation of married couples. Facilitating the employment of older people would also have a positive effect.