The median forecast from 21 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) predicts Singapore’s economy will grow 3.5% this year, down from the Singapore survey’s forecast of 3.8%. June.
The median forecast for inflation is that consumer prices in the broad sense will rise by 5.7% in 2022, up from the 5% forecast in June.
The MAS sent the survey in early August, as the government also downgraded growth forecasts and central banks around the world stepped up their efforts to contain inflation by raising interest rates. interest.
Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents consider a slowdown in external growth among trading partners to be the main downside risk to the economy, while 61.5% believe a better-than-expected recovery in China is the most likely source of an upside surprise.
Weak Chinese data in recent weeks will not be encouraging for this view, however, nor will the disappointing Singapore manufacturing figures released last week.
On the inflation front, the latest July data shows Singapore’s consumer prices have risen at their fastest pace in 13 years and the finance minister said this month that it will not did not expect inflation to peak before the fourth quarter of this year.
Unexpectedly, Singapore tightened its monetary policy twice this year, in January and July.
A majority of economists expect year-on-year corporate profits to decline in the September quarter, according to the survey, although most also believe house prices will rise and corporate bond spreads will remain stable.