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The Republican majority in the House of Representatives has so far been unable to elect a speaker – because the right wing of the party is opposed. That doesn’t bode well.
It should be a formality: the party that has a majority in the House of Representatives elects the speaker from its own ranks. It has been 100 years since such a person was not elected in the first ballot.
But when the newly elected grand chamber of the US Congress met for the first time on Tuesday, something historic happened: Kevin McCarthy, the Republican faction leader, did not get the 218 votes needed for the presidency even after three lengthy ballots.
Slight majority difficult to control
The decision was postponed: Ballot number four will now follow on Wednesday. All of this is also the result of the congressional elections last November. The expected “red wave” did not materialize, and the Republicans only won a very narrow majority of four seats in the House of Representatives. Such a majority is very difficult to control. If you want to become a speaker, you have to fight for every vote.
Individual factions of the party, even individual MPs, are becoming very powerful. Faction members on the far right have now demonstrated that they are willing to use this power – even if it means doing so against a large majority in their own party.
Trump supporters against McCarthy
It is members of the so-called “Freedom Caucus”, staunch supporters of former President Donald Trump, who are leading the revolt against Kevin McCarthy. So far they have prevented his election, although McCarthy had made concessions to them in advance.
According to his opponents, McCarthy is not fighting the government of President Joe Biden too hard. This small Republican minority threatens to bring parliamentary activity to a standstill: MPs cannot be sworn in until a speaker is elected.
Held hostage by the right wing of the party
The new speaker, whatever his name, is likely to find himself in a precarious position: unable to find majorities in a party that can be held hostage by the right wing. It’s a kind of déjà vu: John Boehner, Republican Speaker from 2011 to 2015, also grappled with the rebellious “Freedom Caucus”. In the end he threw in the towel. His successor, Paul Ryan, decided in 2018 to resign from Congress altogether.
None of this bodes well for the new Congress: the Republicans want to hold the Biden government accountable with investigations. But the Republican faction seems unable to capitalize on its newly won majority.
Threatening standstill and wing fights
There is a risk of legislative standstill, if only because the Democrats control the small chamber, the Senate. And chaos looms as the Republican faction wears itself out in factional fights. This could become a problem at the latest when it comes to laws that pass Congress.
For example, he has to raise the debt ceiling to prevent the US government from becoming insolvent. This will be the acid test for this congress. And that will be the acid test for the new parliamentary speaker – when one is finally elected.