The presidential election in Turkey was considered the most important election of the year worldwide. Now it is clear: Recep Tayyip Erdoganremains President of Türkiye. What does that mean for the Ukraine war, NATO and the EU? SRF correspondent Sebastian Ramspeck provides answers to the five most pressing questions.
Biden, Putin and others have congratulated Erdogan. Who has reason to be happy?
Under Erdogan, Turkey turned more and more to the east, deepening relations with Russia, China and the Arab states. So there should be joy there. At the same time, Erdogan has never broken with the West. His recipe for success in foreign policy is a dual strategy: connections and deals with all sides in order to increase Turkey’s power.
In NATO, Turkey is seen by many as a troublemaker. Nothing will change about that?
Barely. Many in NATO hope that Erdogan will show leniency after winning the election and agree to Sweden’s accession. That’s not for sure. The only thing that is certain is that membership in NATO is a key factor in Erdogan’s power. And that his illegal war against Kurds in Syria and Iraq will continue to cause resentment among many NATO allies.
What role does Erdogan want to play in the Ukraine war?
Together with the UN, Erdogan mediated the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine. He is the only head of state who has achieved such a success. This is because he has a good relationship with Putin, does business with Russia, but at the same time supplies Ukraine with combat drones. And the fact that Turkey controls access to the Black Sea. It can be assumed that Erdogan wants to make history as a peacemaker and will continue the mediation efforts.
Legend:
Without power at home, no influence in the world: This also applies to the new old President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
REUTERS/Hannah McKay
What’s next for the EU?
The refugee pact ensures that Turkey keeps Syrian refugees away from the EU. Erdogan seems to be sticking to it and is sending some of the refugees back to Syria to want. He and the EU don’t get along too badly, even though they are moving ever further apart politically. Officially, Turkey has been a candidate for EU membership since 1999, but accession is more unlikely than ever. Erdogan is neither willing to make concessions, nor is the EU willing to accept Turkey. You can benefit from each other economically even without joining.
Can Erdogan further expand his power on the world stage?
Erdogan is likely to continue his dual strategy and hope that it will bring him further success in foreign policy: as a power factor between East and West, as a leading power in the Islamic world. An escalation of the East-West conflict could become dangerous for him in the future, undermining acceptance of his dual strategy. Above all, however, the economic weakness and the social turmoil in their own country. Because the same applies to Erdogan: Without power at home, there is no influence in the world.