Preliminary analyzes from the British health security agency suggest that people infected with the Omicron variant are less likely to be hospitalized. The very strong contagiousness of this new variant of the covid however poses the threat of saturation of hospitals.
From the first elements ” encouraging “. This is how the British Health Security Agency (UKHSA) qualifies the data on patients infected with the Omicron variant that it was able to analyze. Its preliminary findings were released on December 23 – they can be viewed on the UK government’s website. They relate to the risk of hospitalization of people infected with Omicron, the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing the onset of symptoms and the rate of reinfection.
A risk of hospitalization that seems reduced with Omicron
The most encouraging thing about these early data is that people infected with the Omicron variant appear to be at less risk of developing severe forms of the disease. The UKHSA thus indicates that the risk of an identified case being admitted to hospital is ” reduced with Omicron, compared to the Delta variant “.
According to the British agency, a person infected with Omicron would have:
- 31% to 45% less risk of having to be taken to an emergency department compared to the Delta
- 50% to 70% less chance of being admitted to hospital compared to people infected with the Delta variant
This in no way means that the Omicron variant does not pose a serious threat to the population. First, because the analysis by the British health security agency currently covers a still very limited number of data. The UKHSA thus warns: “ this analysis is preliminary and very uncertain due to the small number of Omicron cases currently in the hospital “.
Another element adding a lot of uncertainty to these trends which seem to be emerging: in the United Kingdom, the Omicron variant has not yet spread among people of an older age, which makes these preliminary conclusions unrepresentative of the impact that this variant is likely to have on them. The UKHSA finally highlights the difficulties that the public authorities have to ” accurately assess »The covid history of the cases studied and whether they were previously infected with other covid variants.
Moreover, even if it turns out that Omicron does indeed have a lower dangerousness, its degree of contagiousness seems much higher.
A much stronger contagiousness
The preliminary analysis of the British health security agency thus indicates that the number of people who have been infected by Omicron when they had already contracted the Covid in the past is increasing ” drastically “. Of the Omicron cases studied, 9.5% had already been infected with another variant of Covid previously. ” Since many previous infections are asymptomatic, this means that the proportion of re-infections with Omicron is probably significantly underestimated. “Warns the UKHSA.
How effective are vaccines against Omicron?
According to preliminary data from the British health agency, vaccines appear to be less effective against symptomatic forms of Omicron. ” There is evidence that protection against symptomatic forms decreases after the second dose and then improves after the booster dose. But the latest data suggests that this extra level of protection is waning faster. “.
According to the agency, the protection offered by vaccines seems 15 to 25% lower after 10 weeks. This may vary depending on the vaccination schedules (2 to 3 doses).
Even if it drives fewer people to hospital in proportion, the Omicron variant will drive more people overall, as it spreads much faster than previous variants, posing the threat of hospital saturation. And if they cannot take care of all their patients properly, their chances of recovery are bound to be reduced. The greatest caution therefore remains in order.