Reassure Ukraine and dissuade Russia from going on the offensive: the Twenty-Seven were to try, Thursday, December 16 in Brussels, to close ranks while the massive deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian borders places them in a complicated situation. Especially since, at the same time, Moscow seeks to bypass them to speak directly with Washington about the security of the continent. After a meeting the day before with the member states of the Union’s Eastern Partnership, including Ukraine, this new bout of tension was to be on the menu of the summit of heads of state and government of the European Union (EU ). Face-to-face counseling, initially planned for two days but shortened due to the health crisis.
At the end of the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Twenty-Seven, Monday, the High Representative, Josep Borrell, had made rather alarmist remarks evoking a risk of ” war “ which could only be defused with a plan of “Deterrence” very strong with regard to Moscow. But the tone had to be more measured on Thursday. Warnings from the United States, which have indicated that an invasion of Ukraine could occur early next year, puzzled many Europeans.
In the absence of knowing what Russia’s real intentions are, the deterrence effort should above all remain declamatory on Thursday. “There would be massive strategic consequences if there was a further attack on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. All this would have a very significant cost for Russia ”, thus assured Jean-Yves Le Drian to the National Assembly, Wednesday, seven years after the unilateral annexation of Crimea by Moscow.
“Russia will pay a high price” in case of violation of Ukrainian borders, has, for his part, warned the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, of which this is the first test on the international scene, a week after having succeeded Angela Merkel. The Social Democratic leader did not say whether Germany would be ready, as Washington asks him in the event of an escalation, to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is about to be inaugurated.
Retaliation measures not defined
In the chancelleries of the EU, we welcome the unity displayed by the Twenty-Seven, capable of facing the “Unacceptable threats” of Moscow, to provide support ” flawless “ in Kiev, and to draw “red lines” which, if crossed, would trigger very heavy sanctions. But, in reality, these possible retaliatory measures have not yet been defined, or detailed, and while a firm statement was no doubt to emerge from Thursday’s discussions, nuances between the positions of both were clearly noticeable before. the top.
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