HAS three months from the sixtieth anniversary of the Elysée Treaty, which sealed the reconciliation between France and Germany, while laying the foundations for cooperation between the two countries, bilateral relations are at a low point. Emmanuel Macron has not yet found in the person of Chancellor Olaf Scholz the partner he was calling for, after the departure of Angela Merkel, who was at the origin, with him, of the European recovery plan. The two main drivers of the European Union (EU) even give the impression that they are no longer pulling in the same direction. It is not only the solidity of the Franco-German couple that is at stake, but also its structuring role within the European project, which is threatened with weakening.
These dissensions have objective causes. The Russian invasion of Ukraine shattered the German certainties on which the country had built its prosperity. Between the end of access to inexpensive energy from Russia and the jeopardizing of peace in Europe, Germany must reinvent its economic model, while improvising a geopolitical role which it had renounced after the capitulation of 1945. This is a real earthquake, which could only profoundly reshuffle the cards of the relationship with France.
In fact, the subjects of discord have accumulated in recent weeks, pushing the unexpected postponement of the Franco-German Council of Ministers scheduled for October 26. In defence, several joint projects are treading water, whether for the aircraft of the future or the next generation of tanks. The anti-missile shield project led by Germany within a group of 14 countries, without France, which is leading its own, has strained relations even more.
Possible convergences
In energy, Berlin blocks on the principle of a gas price cap pushed by France, while Paris does not want to hear about a gas pipeline project linking Spain to the rest of Europe to supply the German industry. On the economic level, France did not appreciate that the German Chancellor unsheathed without warning a gigantic plan to support its economy of 200 billion euros, interpreted as a questioning of the principles of competition within the EU. . Even the pace of European construction is subject to debate. When Berlin defends an enlargement towards the east, Paris pleads for a deepening of integration, without fearing a Europe at several speeds.
These differences of opinion come at the worst time, while Vladimir Putin is testing European solidarity and the Franco-German leadership is contested within the Twenty-Seven. The Baltic countries and Poland criticize their two powerful partners for their lack of lucidity and their moderation on the Russian threat, despite the warnings they had sent them. The estrangement within the tandem contributes to undermining its credibility and its legitimacy to set the tone of European politics.
There is an urgent need to overhaul the Franco-German relationship, even if it means saying the things that annoy each other. Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz were to work on it, Wednesday, October 26, during a lunch at the Elysée. Despite the tensions of the moment, which could take some time to resolve, the obstacles are not insurmountable. The German Chancellor’s speech delivered in Prague in August had raised hopes by resonating with several points addressed by Emmanuel Macron four years earlier at the Sorbonne. Now is the time to focus on possible convergences in an attempt to relaunch a dynamic without which the EU risks falling apart.