Monday, December 6th, 2021
Finance, pandemic, transport
The traffic lights will crunch here
Olaf Scholz will be elected Chancellor on Wednesday. But even before the start of the traffic light coalition, there was a row: about the diesel taxes. The problem of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP are vague formulations in the coalition agreement. Dispute is foreseeable.
The coalition agreement is in place, as is the government team, the parties have agreed: Olaf Scholz is to be elected Chancellor on Wednesday and the coalition of his SPD with the Greens and FDP will begin work. This will not be easy in view of the challenges posed by the corona pandemic and the resultant negative economic and financial situation. In addition, the climate crisis poses a threat that requires quick and consistent action.
The so-called traffic light parties have planned a lot. The 177-page book testifies to this Coalition agreementsigned on Tuesday. But are all projects being implemented? That also depends on the further development of the pandemic and the financial opportunities that result from it. Last but not least, the exact design of the planned measures will also play a role, whether all three parties agree to them. Some points of contention remain. An overview:
Pandemic policy
The current pandemic situation makes easing the situation impossible. On the contrary: the measures already had to be improved by the federal and state governments. The fact that the traffic light parties have already twice had to sharpen their infection protection law, which repealed the epidemic situation of national scope, does not make a good impression at all.
The fundamental debate about which measures are appropriate should continue. Above all in the FDP there are voices that reject a lockdown with blanket exit restrictions. And even if the liberal chief Christian Lindner has meanwhile spoken out in favor of compulsory vaccination, there is a rejection in his party.
The government is likely to continue to struggle for the right measures in the future, especially with a Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, who is known for his demands for a consistent pandemic policy. However, it is unlikely that the coalition will split up on different opinions. Especially since the federal states also have a say in the pandemic policy.
Financial policy
The dissonances in financial policy could get louder. The SPD, Greens and FDP have agreed not to increase taxes. In addition, the debt brake, which was suspended due to the corona spending, should apply again from 2023. The fact that the finance department will be headed by FDP boss Lindner in the future indicates a strict spending policy and little leeway – while the two coalition partners envision a somewhat looser financial policy. The latter point to the planned plans, from digitization to traffic turnaround to housing construction, which will not be cheap.
The coalitionists are therefore already tricking the coalition agreement. Uncalled reserves from this year are to be transferred in a supplementary budget to a climate and transformation fund, which could be drawn from in the coming years – without the funds then appearing in the federal budget. However, the taxpayers’ association has already raised constitutional concerns.
One thing is already clear: The far-reaching traffic light plans for a transformation in Germany are subject to financing. This should become a constant source of discussion. None of the three parties should overdo it, because that would mean the end of the coalition.
Climate protection
Financing issues arise above all in climate policy, which is located in the new super ministry of Greens boss Robert Habeck. The expansion of renewable energies, the end of the internal combustion engine, the early phase-out of coal – these are very ambitious goals that depend not only on financial feasibility, but also on the fastest possible implementation.
At the end of the day, it is primarily about the concrete implementation, i.e. the respective draft law, on which it is decided whether it is acceptable for all parties. It is not for nothing that some of the details in the coalition agreement are formulated very vaguely. The coal phase-out, for example, will “ideally” be brought forward to 2030 (instead of the previous 2038). And the “technology of the combustion engine” want to leave the traffic light parties behind, but without stipulating specific guidelines or goals. Precisely these are likely to be interpreted differently.
Last but not least, the Greens are likely to feel the pressure of their own youth as well as movements such as Fridays for Future. They insist on adhering to the 1.5 degree target, which they believe will be missed by the present coalition agreement. If the Greens do not respond to corresponding demands, they lose support. So it is quite possible that Habeck will sharpen the concrete implementation of the climate protection goals – and meet the resistance of the FDP.
Traffic turnaround
It was already surprising that the Greens waived the transport department, because it is considered central to one of the climate protection goals. The fact that FDP politician Volker Wissing is now taking over met with criticism from the green base. And the Liberal also started a first small dispute about the taxation of diesel cars. The FDP wants to compensate for higher energy expenditure with a lower vehicle tax for diesel drivers, the Greens do not see this as being covered by the coalition agreement. As in other points, there are no clear guidelines here – and thus the clear course. In the end, it will depend on whether the various sides are able to compromise.
Armed drones
The purchase of armed drones could become a very specific point of contention. The coalition agreement clearly states: “Armed drones can help protect soldiers deployed abroad. Subject to binding and transparent conditions and taking into account ethical and security-political aspects, we will therefore enable the armed forces of the Bundeswehr to arm drones in this legislative period.”
However, there is resistance from the youth organizations of the SPD and the Greens – and the Jusos in particular make up a quarter of the members of the Bundestag. However, it is unlikely that they will end up risking dissent in the coalition.
Basic security
Also from the youth organizations of the SPD and the Greens there is criticism of the citizens’ money sought by the traffic light, the basic security that Hartz IV is supposed to replace. The young politicians are demanding higher standard rates and the abolition of sanctions. The problem here too: the coalition agreement is vaguely worded. The coalition partners agree: Citizens’ money should “respect the dignity of the individual, enable them to participate in society and be digitally and easily accessible”.
It is unclear exactly how this will be designed in the end. All three parties are facing internal debates, the coalition will have to struggle to find a compromise. However, the parties have not even anchored an increase in the standard rates in their contracts.