According to the Banque de France, the French economy should continue to show resilience, with activity stabilizing in January after a “slight increase” at the end of 2022.
The French economy should continue to show resilience, with activity stabilizing in January after a “slight increaseat the end of 2022 despite the energy and inflationary shocks, the Banque de France said on Wednesday January 11.
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth would reach 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a “slight increase in December“, specified the central bank in its monthly economic note. It should then becomealmost stablein January 2023. “Resilience is confirmed and even prolonged“Said the Director General of the Banque de France, Olivier Garnier, during a press briefing.
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0.1% growth in the fourth quarter
GDP growth should thus reach 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, taking into account the penalizing effect of the autumn strikes in the refineries and the maintenance of the nuclear power plants, with a “slight increase in December“, according to the institution. It should then becomealmost stable” in January.
For the whole of 2022, the Banque de France confirmed its forecast of 2.6% growth (compared to 2.5% for INSEE and 2.7% for the government), before a sharp decline in 2023, to +0.3% according to its main scenario. But there is stilla lot of uncertainties hanging over the first quarter“, noted Olivier Garnier. A recession”limited and temporaryis not excluded by the institution.
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In the medium term, the Banque de France expects an economic cycle in three “R»: resilience, slowdown and recovery from 2024. In detail, activity continued to grow in December in industry, services and construction, more strongly than expected the previous month, according to the results of the latest monthly survey carried out by the central bank among 8,500 business leaders between December 20 and January 5. In January, activity should progress a little in services and industry, with however strong sectoral disparities: decline in clothing or rubber-plastic in particular, and rise in pharmaceuticals, automobiles or aeronautics. She would be stable in the building.
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