Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in France in the 3rd quarter should come out at 0.25% and be slightly weaker than estimated (0.3%) in early September, according to the latest Banque de France business survey published Monday.
Early indications suggest a slight rise in GDP in October, the note also predicts. This confirms the good resilience of activity in the 3rd quarter and this confirms our forecasts for 2022 (2.6%, Ed), declared Olivier Garnier, the director general of the Banque de France.
Growth in September was stable compared to August, despite a slight increase in activity in construction compared to industry and services, the report noted. All in all, over the quarter which has just ended in September, activity seems to have held up rather well, driven by the dynamism of certain market services, but also by an increase in value added in industry during the summer. , continues the Bank of France.
In a highly uncertain context, in particular regarding the cost and availability of energy, companies are anticipating for October that activity would change little in industry and construction and would increase again in market services, but more slightly than in the previous months. precedents, anticipates the investigation.
The central bank also notes that the prices of finished products are rising again due to a strong seasonal catch-up after the summer and uncertainties linked to the energy crisis which extend to all sectors, according to Mr. Garnier.
29% of business leaders in the manufacturing industry say they increased their selling price in September. This proportion is particularly high in the food industry (where 43% of companies indicate having increased their prices), the chemical industry, and wood, paper and printing. It rises to 49% for construction companies and 21% for market services, the note indicates.
The increases, which should level off slightly in October in industry (23%), services (20%) and construction (44%), relate especially to services to individuals (accommodation, catering, automobile repair) and transportation.
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Supply difficulties continue to move away from the April peak, according to Mr. Garnier, but remain high (49% in industry, 40% in construction).
In terms of cash, industry continues to suffer, both large companies and SMEs, due to the cost of raw materials and energy.
This degradation particularly affects certain industrial sectors such as the pharmaceutical industry, chemicals, wood, paper, printing and electrical equipment, again according to the Banque de France.